It is a matter for some thought.. the lengths the Eurozone will go to prop up what must eventually become yet another grand gesture..
To all intents and purposes, the one economy that is in the black, is being dragged down by 16 other member countries who are struggling to fight off impending bankruptcy..
The German Parliament has voted, by some majority, to the establishment of a 780bn Euro 'bailout fund'.. something short of the €3trillion that was suggested as necissary by the US Treasury Secretary..
The problem has been, and remains, the lack of productivity endemic in the countries which have already recieved emergency loans, and those which teeter on the brink of needing funds to stave off bankruptcy..
It appears Greece will get it's next tranche of loans, and that should hold off the wolf at the door for another few months, but, the question remains, what can be done in the short term to improve the situation..?
And the answer is glaringly obvious..
Nothing.
We are caught in a carolsel.. where bankrupt countries are being kept afloat without any significant changes to their economic situations..
This can end with only one scenario.. That being the end of the Euro, and that will be accellerated by the German people's dissatisfaction with the loaning of their capital to prop up failures..
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Monday, September 26, 2011
This impending switch in roles between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladmir Putin has some senior Russians a tad wary..
Former leader Mikhail Gorbachev says this could set Putin up for another..possibly..12 years in the drivers seat..
Saturday was the day Putin announced his plans to run for the Presidency again, and barring some kind of revolution, this amounts to the prospect of another Kremlin leader for life.. a tradition that stretches back 450 years to the reign of Ivan the Terrible, Russia's first Czar..
No matter how popular or effective a leader may be, that seems like a long commitment, and Putin's ruling party, United Russia, made every effort over the weekend to cast it as the shining path to the glory of the nation. "The return of Vladimir Putin to the post of President is totally logical, because he remains our national leader,".. said Andrei Isaev, a senior Party boss..
The concern is.. that this could lead to another 12 years of the status quo, of political stagnation. Alexei Kudrin, one of Putin's most trusted advisers, who has served as Russia's Finance Minister for 12 years, said on Sunday that he wanted no part of it. "I see no role for myself in the new government," Kudrin told reporters during a trip to Washington..
Now there is a small cadre within the Kremlin.. a small faction of Kremlin liberals who have lobbied for President Dmitri Medvedev.. a self-styled Westernizer and reformer, to stay on for six more years. But his re-election would have required a reversal of Putin's grand political strategy.. In 2008, when the constitution barred Putin from taking a third consecutive term as President, he chose a successor from among his most loyal lieutenants.. the weakest and least independent among them was Medvedev, and when he was chosen, it seemed clear that he would be little more than a placeholder President, warming Putin's seat until he could legally return in 2012.
This is a situation that should be closely watched, for if Putin returns, it could well mean a reversal of the relaxation of Russian relations with the West.. and a reversal of the new freedoms the Russian peoples now enjoy due to Medvedev's more liberal moves.. greater freedom of the press, fewer restrictions on the political opposition and the easing of state control of the economy..
Given the unstable position Europe is presently in, a more restrictive Russia would only deepen the depression generally felt throughout the Eurozone..
As said, this bears our attention..
Another situation which will bear our scrutiny..
China's top security official visited Pakistan today in an effort to strengthen ties with a country whose relationship with the United States is growing more tenuous by the day..
Pakistani officials and commentators have been talking up their country's relationship with Beijing, with some suggesting it could one day replace the United States as Islamabad's main foreign benefactor..
China's Public Security Minister Meng Jianzhu was met by his Pakistani counterpart, Interior Minister Rehman Malik, who brushed aside questions on the timing of the visit..
"Lets not talk USA here. I am here with my friend China," he told reporters. "China is always there for us in the most difficult moments."..
You bet they are.. now..
There was a time not so long ago, that the only country which supported Pakistan was the US.. pumping money directly into their economy, and maintaining strong diplomatic ties..
But, it seems the US support has had too many price-tags.. the likes of the killing of Osama..
The last thing we need, is to lose the status we now have with Pakistan, relinquishing it to China.. who's ultimate goals are as shrouded as that country is large..
And with the United States..
It appears to be a case of 'here we go again'..
Congress is once again allowing shutdown politics to bring the federal government to the brink of closing..
For the second time in nine months, lawmakers are bickering and posturing over spending plans.. The difference this time is that everyone agrees on the massive barrel of money to keep the government running for another seven weeks..
"It is embarrassing," Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., admitted Sunday.. Warner asked: "Can we, once again, inflict on the country and the American people the spectacle of a near government shutdown?"..
At issue is a small part of the almost $4 trillion budget intended for an infrequent purpose, that being federal dollars to help victims of floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and other natural disasters and whether some of the expense should be offset by cuts in other government spending..
This sort of crisis management has cost Congress credibility in the eyes of the electorate, with about eight in 10 Americans disapproving of the institution's performance after this summer's debt crisis.. this is the reason Moodys downgraded the nation's ratings as a result, unnerving the world's financial markets..
And here we go again..
And there is yet another pressing problem on Barack's plate.. Unemployment in the South is losing him votes by the hundreds of thousands.. The South has gone from having the lowest unemployment rate, to the highest..
Several Southern states.. including South Carolina, whose 11.1 percent unemployment rate is the fourth highest in the nation.. have higher unemployment rates than they did a year ago.. Unemployment in the South is now higher than it is in the Northeast and the Midwest.. which include Rust Belt states that were struggling even before the recession..
And with Congress playing it's self-serving game.. the White House needs what can be done to be done now..
But again, what good does it do the GOP to get them to play ball.. what concessions before the end of this term..
At what cost, Barack..?
That financial 'black hole' we've spoken of for years is becoming a reality..
Meetings of the IMF in the US are suggesting discounting.. forgiving.. forgetting completely.. Greece's overall debt by 50%.. The plan also envisages an increase in the size of the Eurozone bailout fund to 2 trillion Euros..
When will we learn that tossing our cash into a futile attempt to prop up any economy that cannot support itself, is as much as flushing it down the loo..
Should this keep up, we will soon find us all in a never ending circle of 'quantitative easing'.. profligate printing of specie by our own Treasury.. leading to massive inflation.. growing unemployment.. and what will amount to a global depression..
Now, 'global' might not quite be accurate.. Russia and China have the internal resources to lose international markets.. their populations alone could keep them afloat, and while even with those two countries the water may lap at the gunnel's, they will not suffer to the depth the West will..
Their populations are already inured to what we would consider 'intolerable' living conditions, and restrictions through State regulation..
But, as we said, the 'black hole' solution appears to be in motion..
Over the weekend, the G20 reasserted its commitment to "a strong and co-ordinated international response" to the crisis, but analysts warned this would not be enough to satisfy investors..
And that's a harbinger of things to come..
Former leader Mikhail Gorbachev says this could set Putin up for another..possibly..12 years in the drivers seat..
Saturday was the day Putin announced his plans to run for the Presidency again, and barring some kind of revolution, this amounts to the prospect of another Kremlin leader for life.. a tradition that stretches back 450 years to the reign of Ivan the Terrible, Russia's first Czar..
No matter how popular or effective a leader may be, that seems like a long commitment, and Putin's ruling party, United Russia, made every effort over the weekend to cast it as the shining path to the glory of the nation. "The return of Vladimir Putin to the post of President is totally logical, because he remains our national leader,".. said Andrei Isaev, a senior Party boss..
The concern is.. that this could lead to another 12 years of the status quo, of political stagnation. Alexei Kudrin, one of Putin's most trusted advisers, who has served as Russia's Finance Minister for 12 years, said on Sunday that he wanted no part of it. "I see no role for myself in the new government," Kudrin told reporters during a trip to Washington..
Now there is a small cadre within the Kremlin.. a small faction of Kremlin liberals who have lobbied for President Dmitri Medvedev.. a self-styled Westernizer and reformer, to stay on for six more years. But his re-election would have required a reversal of Putin's grand political strategy.. In 2008, when the constitution barred Putin from taking a third consecutive term as President, he chose a successor from among his most loyal lieutenants.. the weakest and least independent among them was Medvedev, and when he was chosen, it seemed clear that he would be little more than a placeholder President, warming Putin's seat until he could legally return in 2012.
This is a situation that should be closely watched, for if Putin returns, it could well mean a reversal of the relaxation of Russian relations with the West.. and a reversal of the new freedoms the Russian peoples now enjoy due to Medvedev's more liberal moves.. greater freedom of the press, fewer restrictions on the political opposition and the easing of state control of the economy..
Given the unstable position Europe is presently in, a more restrictive Russia would only deepen the depression generally felt throughout the Eurozone..
As said, this bears our attention..
Another situation which will bear our scrutiny..
China's top security official visited Pakistan today in an effort to strengthen ties with a country whose relationship with the United States is growing more tenuous by the day..
Pakistani officials and commentators have been talking up their country's relationship with Beijing, with some suggesting it could one day replace the United States as Islamabad's main foreign benefactor..
China's Public Security Minister Meng Jianzhu was met by his Pakistani counterpart, Interior Minister Rehman Malik, who brushed aside questions on the timing of the visit..
"Lets not talk USA here. I am here with my friend China," he told reporters. "China is always there for us in the most difficult moments."..
You bet they are.. now..
There was a time not so long ago, that the only country which supported Pakistan was the US.. pumping money directly into their economy, and maintaining strong diplomatic ties..
But, it seems the US support has had too many price-tags.. the likes of the killing of Osama..
The last thing we need, is to lose the status we now have with Pakistan, relinquishing it to China.. who's ultimate goals are as shrouded as that country is large..
And with the United States..
It appears to be a case of 'here we go again'..
Congress is once again allowing shutdown politics to bring the federal government to the brink of closing..
For the second time in nine months, lawmakers are bickering and posturing over spending plans.. The difference this time is that everyone agrees on the massive barrel of money to keep the government running for another seven weeks..
"It is embarrassing," Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., admitted Sunday.. Warner asked: "Can we, once again, inflict on the country and the American people the spectacle of a near government shutdown?"..
At issue is a small part of the almost $4 trillion budget intended for an infrequent purpose, that being federal dollars to help victims of floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and other natural disasters and whether some of the expense should be offset by cuts in other government spending..
This sort of crisis management has cost Congress credibility in the eyes of the electorate, with about eight in 10 Americans disapproving of the institution's performance after this summer's debt crisis.. this is the reason Moodys downgraded the nation's ratings as a result, unnerving the world's financial markets..
And here we go again..
And there is yet another pressing problem on Barack's plate.. Unemployment in the South is losing him votes by the hundreds of thousands.. The South has gone from having the lowest unemployment rate, to the highest..
Several Southern states.. including South Carolina, whose 11.1 percent unemployment rate is the fourth highest in the nation.. have higher unemployment rates than they did a year ago.. Unemployment in the South is now higher than it is in the Northeast and the Midwest.. which include Rust Belt states that were struggling even before the recession..
And with Congress playing it's self-serving game.. the White House needs what can be done to be done now..
But again, what good does it do the GOP to get them to play ball.. what concessions before the end of this term..
At what cost, Barack..?
That financial 'black hole' we've spoken of for years is becoming a reality..
Meetings of the IMF in the US are suggesting discounting.. forgiving.. forgetting completely.. Greece's overall debt by 50%.. The plan also envisages an increase in the size of the Eurozone bailout fund to 2 trillion Euros..
When will we learn that tossing our cash into a futile attempt to prop up any economy that cannot support itself, is as much as flushing it down the loo..
Should this keep up, we will soon find us all in a never ending circle of 'quantitative easing'.. profligate printing of specie by our own Treasury.. leading to massive inflation.. growing unemployment.. and what will amount to a global depression..
Now, 'global' might not quite be accurate.. Russia and China have the internal resources to lose international markets.. their populations alone could keep them afloat, and while even with those two countries the water may lap at the gunnel's, they will not suffer to the depth the West will..
Their populations are already inured to what we would consider 'intolerable' living conditions, and restrictions through State regulation..
But, as we said, the 'black hole' solution appears to be in motion..
Over the weekend, the G20 reasserted its commitment to "a strong and co-ordinated international response" to the crisis, but analysts warned this would not be enough to satisfy investors..
And that's a harbinger of things to come..
Sunday, September 25, 2011
A couple of items of note..
Perhaps the most influential of the Arab nations, Saudi Arabia, has finally entered the modern world.. King Abdullah has granted the franchise to women.. and further, to their right to sit on the highly influential Shura Council..
To date, the kingdom has been enforcing a strict version of Sunni Islamic law..
This 'Westernisation' process through North Africa and Asia has sprung up with amazing rapidity, and in fact, flies directly in the face of centuries of tradition..
Just goes to show what incentives cars, larger salaries, education, and in no small part, the Internet, has been..
Betimes the old Chinese saying comes to mind though..
"May you not live in interesting times.."
Now, private talks have been ongoing, to allow Greece to default on next months interest payments, while still remaining in the Euro.. But one must question the wisdom of this course of action.. Christine Laguard has admitted, that should those who have had 'bail-out' loans begin to default, or should another country declare themselves as in need, the IMF would not have the means to pull more fat from the fire..
However, It is believed that policymakers feel they need to concentrate on recapitalising banks and boosting the funds of the European Financial Stability Facility.. the plan to increase the EFSF's financial firepower could see the money available to bail out EU banks and member states rise from 440bn Euros to about 2trillion Euros..
He added that the plan could also enable the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy more Italian and Spanish bonds to prevent those two countries needing a full bailout..
There appears to be little point to continuously bemoan the good money being tossed after bad.. it is a course the EU appears doggedly set on, to preserve the tattered integrity of this grand experiment..
And meanwhile, there is not a nation on this earth that's not watching with some trepidation.. for if.. when..the European Union ends.. we'll need all those bureaucrats which have been made redundant..
And, the next area of conflict to keep the engine of war turning over, could well be Pakistan, especially with the growing tensions at the Afghani border..
Afghan defense officials warned Pakistan on Sunday to stop firing rockets and heavy artillery into the northeast of the country or the military will respond with force.. Pakistan denied it was responsible..
Separately, a U.S. official confirmed an attack on a facility used by American officials in Kabul..
"The situation is fluid, and the investigation is ongoing," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation..
It's been ten years since the combined forces of Britain and the US drove the Taliban from power..
Perhaps the most influential of the Arab nations, Saudi Arabia, has finally entered the modern world.. King Abdullah has granted the franchise to women.. and further, to their right to sit on the highly influential Shura Council..
To date, the kingdom has been enforcing a strict version of Sunni Islamic law..
This 'Westernisation' process through North Africa and Asia has sprung up with amazing rapidity, and in fact, flies directly in the face of centuries of tradition..
Just goes to show what incentives cars, larger salaries, education, and in no small part, the Internet, has been..
Betimes the old Chinese saying comes to mind though..
"May you not live in interesting times.."
Now, private talks have been ongoing, to allow Greece to default on next months interest payments, while still remaining in the Euro.. But one must question the wisdom of this course of action.. Christine Laguard has admitted, that should those who have had 'bail-out' loans begin to default, or should another country declare themselves as in need, the IMF would not have the means to pull more fat from the fire..
However, It is believed that policymakers feel they need to concentrate on recapitalising banks and boosting the funds of the European Financial Stability Facility.. the plan to increase the EFSF's financial firepower could see the money available to bail out EU banks and member states rise from 440bn Euros to about 2trillion Euros..
He added that the plan could also enable the European Central Bank (ECB) to buy more Italian and Spanish bonds to prevent those two countries needing a full bailout..
There appears to be little point to continuously bemoan the good money being tossed after bad.. it is a course the EU appears doggedly set on, to preserve the tattered integrity of this grand experiment..
And meanwhile, there is not a nation on this earth that's not watching with some trepidation.. for if.. when..the European Union ends.. we'll need all those bureaucrats which have been made redundant..
And, the next area of conflict to keep the engine of war turning over, could well be Pakistan, especially with the growing tensions at the Afghani border..
Afghan defense officials warned Pakistan on Sunday to stop firing rockets and heavy artillery into the northeast of the country or the military will respond with force.. Pakistan denied it was responsible..
Separately, a U.S. official confirmed an attack on a facility used by American officials in Kabul..
"The situation is fluid, and the investigation is ongoing," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation..
It's been ten years since the combined forces of Britain and the US drove the Taliban from power..
Monday, September 19, 2011
Just a couple of brief notes..
It was a combative President Obama today, as he demanded that the richest Americans pay higher taxes to help cut soaring U.S. deficits by more than $3 trillion.. He promised to veto any effort by congressional Republican to cut Medicare benefits for the elderly without raising taxes as well..
"This is not class warfare. It's math," Obama declared, anticipating Republican criticism, which was quick in coming..
House Speaker Boehner, whom Obama singled out in his speech for having "walked away" from a "grand bargain" during the debt-ceiling debate in July, said the president's approach was unhelpful..
"This administration's insistence on raising taxes on job creators and its reluctance to take the steps necessary to strengthen our entitlement programmes are the reasons the president and I were not able to reach an agreement previously, and it is evident today that these barriers remain," he said..
Indeed.
And this is the problem Barack's going to face for the remainder of his tenure.. battling the GOP who today called Barack's plans to 'tax the rich' out and out 'class warfare'..
This may be the template we see for the remainder of Obama's term in office.. a constant fight with a Republican House.. and obstacles constantly being thrown in the path of a smooth passage of any bills..
Our own Business Secretary Vince Cable told this years LibDem Conference, that we are in the equivalent of an 'economic war'.. In a bleak assessment of the future, he said the era of ever-rising living standards had ended and people were just worrying about "how to survive"..
Now he's taken a page from this blog..
Vince also has called for higher taxes on the higher earners.. taking a page from Barack's speech..
The sad fact of the matter is, that we, the middle class, are in for quite a while of hand-to-mouth living, as prices rise and jobs disappear..
To suggest anything else, would simply be a Pollyanna view on the current situation..
And the least we can expect from government these days.. is accurate and honest assessments..
It was a combative President Obama today, as he demanded that the richest Americans pay higher taxes to help cut soaring U.S. deficits by more than $3 trillion.. He promised to veto any effort by congressional Republican to cut Medicare benefits for the elderly without raising taxes as well..
"This is not class warfare. It's math," Obama declared, anticipating Republican criticism, which was quick in coming..
House Speaker Boehner, whom Obama singled out in his speech for having "walked away" from a "grand bargain" during the debt-ceiling debate in July, said the president's approach was unhelpful..
"This administration's insistence on raising taxes on job creators and its reluctance to take the steps necessary to strengthen our entitlement programmes are the reasons the president and I were not able to reach an agreement previously, and it is evident today that these barriers remain," he said..
Indeed.
And this is the problem Barack's going to face for the remainder of his tenure.. battling the GOP who today called Barack's plans to 'tax the rich' out and out 'class warfare'..
This may be the template we see for the remainder of Obama's term in office.. a constant fight with a Republican House.. and obstacles constantly being thrown in the path of a smooth passage of any bills..
Our own Business Secretary Vince Cable told this years LibDem Conference, that we are in the equivalent of an 'economic war'.. In a bleak assessment of the future, he said the era of ever-rising living standards had ended and people were just worrying about "how to survive"..
Now he's taken a page from this blog..
Vince also has called for higher taxes on the higher earners.. taking a page from Barack's speech..
The sad fact of the matter is, that we, the middle class, are in for quite a while of hand-to-mouth living, as prices rise and jobs disappear..
To suggest anything else, would simply be a Pollyanna view on the current situation..
And the least we can expect from government these days.. is accurate and honest assessments..
Saturday, September 17, 2011
While not offering anything in the way of a concrete solution, our Chancellor, George Osborne has announced that things are dire within the EuroZone, and has urged those countries involved to get a grip on things..
Nothing like stating the obvious..
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner attended the Warsaw meeting of Finance Ministers yesterday.. and has some rather scathing things to say about the state of European finances, but he too, had nothing in the way of concrete suggestions to remedy the situation..
It is an unfortunate fact that Europe is our major market for exports, and with the extent of the decay, it is uncertain just how many countries will be able to maintain dealing with a strong Pound Sterling.. This is a major concern, for while we in Britain might have a tenuous hold on our particular situation, that would change dramatically should French and German banks continue to expose themselves to unrecoverable debts.. loans made to Greece.. Ireland.. Portugal..
And if the situation deteriorates further, with the possibility of major EuroZone countries the likes of Italy and Spain needing bailouts.. we will find ourselves knee deep in someone else's privy..
A few days ago we posted a breakdown of what the situation is today, for those dependent on Government Social Services.. If the Euro falls, and well it might, we will find ourselves in a position wherein our only hope is to devalue our own currency, to improve it's chances of maintaining a place in the global marketplace..
That would not be good for Cameron and the Tory Party, but indeed, we would be reduced to frantically grasping at straws, electing perhaps Labour back into power, with, once again, no palliative solutions to keep this island afloat..
It would seem, that we must inure ourselves to the pain of paying for the past 50 years of profligate borrowing, regardless of who's running the country..
There doesn't seem to be many alternatives..
Even Canada thrown it's oar into the fray.. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says world leaders will continue to push Europe to tackle its debt crisis in order to prevent a ripple effect on economies around the globe..
"It's imperative that the Europeans deal with the sovereign debt situation, and deal with their banking situation, make sure that banks are adequately capitalized. Otherwise we run the risk of a large shock emanating from Europe," Flaherty said in an interview with CBC Radio's 'The House'.. broadcast today..
Meanwhile, back in the States.. Obama is keeping up his appeal for public support of his $447 billion proposal to boost jobs and consumer spending by urging Americans to press Congress to pass the legislation. "No more division or delay," he said..
In his weekly radio and Internet address today, he focused on a message that has become central to a presidency struggling to address stubbornly high unemployment numbers and dipping approval of his handling of the economy..
The president announced his jobs legislation to a joint session of Congress last week and has since gone outside Washington to build a case for its passage. He has been to Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina..
"The No. 1 issue for the people I meet is how we can get back to a place where we're creating good, middle-class jobs that pay well and offer some security," he said..
A laudable sentiment, but again, it begs the question..'How..?'
His address came in the face of sobering public opinion ratings for the president..
A New York Times/CBS News poll released yesterday.. showed nearly half of those surveyed worried the economy was headed for another recession.. and nearly three out of four said they believe the country is on the wrong track..
Mind you, four out of four have no idea whatsoever, as how this mess might be sorted out..
The American Ambassador to Pakistan said in remarks broadcast today.. that there is evidence linking the Haqqani insurgent network to the Pakistani government.. a charge that could raise tensions in an already strained anti-terror alliance between Washington and Islamabad..
The U.S. and NATO blame the Haqqani network for many of the attacks in Afghanistan, including this week's strike on the U.S. Embassy. The group.. affiliated with both the Taliban and al Q'aida and its army of several thousand fighters is widely assumed to be based just over the Afghan border in Pakistan..
U.S. officials have long suspected links between the Pakistan military and the Haqqani network..
But needing Pakistani cooperation to beat al Q'aida and stabilize Afghanistan.. they rarely say so publicly and as directly as Ambassador Cameron Munter did in his interview with Radio Pakistan..
Meanwhile, floods in that country have displaced millions of people, and left them stranded.. homeless.. and without aid of any kind, so far..
Nothing like stating the obvious..
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner attended the Warsaw meeting of Finance Ministers yesterday.. and has some rather scathing things to say about the state of European finances, but he too, had nothing in the way of concrete suggestions to remedy the situation..
It is an unfortunate fact that Europe is our major market for exports, and with the extent of the decay, it is uncertain just how many countries will be able to maintain dealing with a strong Pound Sterling.. This is a major concern, for while we in Britain might have a tenuous hold on our particular situation, that would change dramatically should French and German banks continue to expose themselves to unrecoverable debts.. loans made to Greece.. Ireland.. Portugal..
And if the situation deteriorates further, with the possibility of major EuroZone countries the likes of Italy and Spain needing bailouts.. we will find ourselves knee deep in someone else's privy..
A few days ago we posted a breakdown of what the situation is today, for those dependent on Government Social Services.. If the Euro falls, and well it might, we will find ourselves in a position wherein our only hope is to devalue our own currency, to improve it's chances of maintaining a place in the global marketplace..
That would not be good for Cameron and the Tory Party, but indeed, we would be reduced to frantically grasping at straws, electing perhaps Labour back into power, with, once again, no palliative solutions to keep this island afloat..
It would seem, that we must inure ourselves to the pain of paying for the past 50 years of profligate borrowing, regardless of who's running the country..
There doesn't seem to be many alternatives..
Even Canada thrown it's oar into the fray.. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says world leaders will continue to push Europe to tackle its debt crisis in order to prevent a ripple effect on economies around the globe..
"It's imperative that the Europeans deal with the sovereign debt situation, and deal with their banking situation, make sure that banks are adequately capitalized. Otherwise we run the risk of a large shock emanating from Europe," Flaherty said in an interview with CBC Radio's 'The House'.. broadcast today..
Meanwhile, back in the States.. Obama is keeping up his appeal for public support of his $447 billion proposal to boost jobs and consumer spending by urging Americans to press Congress to pass the legislation. "No more division or delay," he said..
In his weekly radio and Internet address today, he focused on a message that has become central to a presidency struggling to address stubbornly high unemployment numbers and dipping approval of his handling of the economy..
The president announced his jobs legislation to a joint session of Congress last week and has since gone outside Washington to build a case for its passage. He has been to Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina..
"The No. 1 issue for the people I meet is how we can get back to a place where we're creating good, middle-class jobs that pay well and offer some security," he said..
A laudable sentiment, but again, it begs the question..'How..?'
His address came in the face of sobering public opinion ratings for the president..
A New York Times/CBS News poll released yesterday.. showed nearly half of those surveyed worried the economy was headed for another recession.. and nearly three out of four said they believe the country is on the wrong track..
Mind you, four out of four have no idea whatsoever, as how this mess might be sorted out..
The American Ambassador to Pakistan said in remarks broadcast today.. that there is evidence linking the Haqqani insurgent network to the Pakistani government.. a charge that could raise tensions in an already strained anti-terror alliance between Washington and Islamabad..
The U.S. and NATO blame the Haqqani network for many of the attacks in Afghanistan, including this week's strike on the U.S. Embassy. The group.. affiliated with both the Taliban and al Q'aida and its army of several thousand fighters is widely assumed to be based just over the Afghan border in Pakistan..
U.S. officials have long suspected links between the Pakistan military and the Haqqani network..
But needing Pakistani cooperation to beat al Q'aida and stabilize Afghanistan.. they rarely say so publicly and as directly as Ambassador Cameron Munter did in his interview with Radio Pakistan..
Meanwhile, floods in that country have displaced millions of people, and left them stranded.. homeless.. and without aid of any kind, so far..
Friday, September 16, 2011
The storm clouds are gathering over Greece..
The American Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, has flown to Poland to throw his two cents in concerning the EU debt crisis.. Now as for the next tranche of bailout payments to Greece, European Finance Ministers will wait until October to decide whether the situation can be saved by pouring cash into a leaking bucket.. the majority of analysts agree Greece will default on it's next interest payments.. which leaves few options for that beleaguered country..
The one solution, as we mentioned some months ago, is for Greece to leave the EU temporarily, lose the Euro and return to the Drachma, and devalue the currency as low as the markets will bear..
But, what then of all the billions already loaned..? French and German banks are dangerously exposed.. and investors in those countries could see their own house of cards wobble should none of this cash come home..
The markets have closed here.. but investors seem uncertain.. with the exception of France's Cac, which closed down about 1% on the heels of uncertainty in the banking sector, the rest ended the day flat..
In perhaps an optimistic moment.. at a campaign fundraiser last night in Washington, President Obama said he believes his chances of being reelected in 2012 are “much higher” than they were in 2008..
“Over the last couple of months there have been Democrats who voiced concerns and nervousness about, well, in this kind of economy, isn’t this just.. aren’t these just huge headwinds in terms of your reelection?” Obama said..
“And I just have to remind people that, here’s one thing I know for certain: the odds of me being reelected are much higher than the odds of me being elected in the first place.”..
Obama made the remarks before a gathering of 50 donors to his reelection campaign and the Democratic National Committee who each paid $35,800 to attend..
Yet history cannot be ignored.. No American President has ever been re-elected, with an unemployment level over 7.2%..
As we write, it stands a full two points above that level, with the private sector unable to keep up with the layoffs in the Public Service..
That, does not look as though it will change much in the next 15 months or so..
Obama attended two intimate $35,800-per-couple fundraisers last night, assuring donors that he will push Congress to pass his economic initiative and expressing confidence in his ability to win a second term.. Comparing his drive to get the public behind his $447 billion jobs proposal to a political campaign, Obama declared.. "We intend to keep the pressure up," he said. "Folks are ready for action.".. Now, there's an understatement if ever there was one..
Best of luck with Congress.. the GOP has no great desire to pass legislation that could reflect well on the President, regardless of the good it may do their constituents.. The general view is, that this 'recession' will last longer than the run-up to the next election, and if the Republicans can use this to their advantage, they will..
We've already seen how 'playing politics' is indeed a game in the US..
They appear to have lost their way in the overall Game..
The American Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, has flown to Poland to throw his two cents in concerning the EU debt crisis.. Now as for the next tranche of bailout payments to Greece, European Finance Ministers will wait until October to decide whether the situation can be saved by pouring cash into a leaking bucket.. the majority of analysts agree Greece will default on it's next interest payments.. which leaves few options for that beleaguered country..
The one solution, as we mentioned some months ago, is for Greece to leave the EU temporarily, lose the Euro and return to the Drachma, and devalue the currency as low as the markets will bear..
But, what then of all the billions already loaned..? French and German banks are dangerously exposed.. and investors in those countries could see their own house of cards wobble should none of this cash come home..
The markets have closed here.. but investors seem uncertain.. with the exception of France's Cac, which closed down about 1% on the heels of uncertainty in the banking sector, the rest ended the day flat..
In perhaps an optimistic moment.. at a campaign fundraiser last night in Washington, President Obama said he believes his chances of being reelected in 2012 are “much higher” than they were in 2008..
“Over the last couple of months there have been Democrats who voiced concerns and nervousness about, well, in this kind of economy, isn’t this just.. aren’t these just huge headwinds in terms of your reelection?” Obama said..
“And I just have to remind people that, here’s one thing I know for certain: the odds of me being reelected are much higher than the odds of me being elected in the first place.”..
Obama made the remarks before a gathering of 50 donors to his reelection campaign and the Democratic National Committee who each paid $35,800 to attend..
Yet history cannot be ignored.. No American President has ever been re-elected, with an unemployment level over 7.2%..
As we write, it stands a full two points above that level, with the private sector unable to keep up with the layoffs in the Public Service..
That, does not look as though it will change much in the next 15 months or so..
Obama attended two intimate $35,800-per-couple fundraisers last night, assuring donors that he will push Congress to pass his economic initiative and expressing confidence in his ability to win a second term.. Comparing his drive to get the public behind his $447 billion jobs proposal to a political campaign, Obama declared.. "We intend to keep the pressure up," he said. "Folks are ready for action.".. Now, there's an understatement if ever there was one..
Best of luck with Congress.. the GOP has no great desire to pass legislation that could reflect well on the President, regardless of the good it may do their constituents.. The general view is, that this 'recession' will last longer than the run-up to the next election, and if the Republicans can use this to their advantage, they will..
We've already seen how 'playing politics' is indeed a game in the US..
They appear to have lost their way in the overall Game..
Thursday, September 15, 2011
We've all been concerned.. preoccupied.. with international economic events.. Numbers the likes of 'trillions' have been tossed about with gay abandon, none of which is, in real terms, intelligible to the average man on the street..
But.. this is how it's affecting those on fixed incomes.. state pensions, be they reflective of lifetime earnings, or disability contributions.. The average basic state pension amounts to some £400/month.. those collecting disability can add another £500/month.. giving a basic gross monthly income of £900.. for those collecting both benefits that is..
Now those in Canada or the US immediately jump for their conversion tables, and say 'that works out to some $1350/month, give or take.. But it must be stressed, that what costs a dollar in North America, costs a Pound here..
Electricity will cost a pensioner a minimum of £40/week.. or £120/month..
Gas will run about the same, on a yearly average.. that's for heating.. we're now at £240/month for basics.. Council tax and Water and Sewerage will cost another £80/month.. Petrol, for those who can still afford to keep a car on the road, is at £1.50/l.. £30 minimum for a weeks driving around town.. when a loaf of bread weighs is at £1.50.loaf.. an average weeks shop will come to £70.. another £280 per month..
Then, back to the car, insurance will run you £340/annum.. or say £28/month.. Road tax is at £150/annum.. £14/month.. Telly License another £25/month..
Now all this adds up to £787..roughly speaking.. and leaves the pensioner with £113/month disposable income.. just over £25/week.. And if you're among the generation that smokes and always has.. a pack of 20 will cost you £7.35.. and there goes your excess..
Not to mention any payments an individual might be making on catalogue purchases or credit cards..
This will be an exceedingly rough time for all in this country.. in fact, for all, everywhere..
But this is the reality, today, for those who's incomes will not increase after strike action.. for those who have worked all their lives for a State Pension, only today to find themselves in a position of virtual poverty..
And, as inflation creeps up, this situation will only get worse. It stands at 4.5% this month.. and expect it to rise despite the efforts of the Bank of England to keep interest rates down..
Now this is just a keyhole look into someone on State Benefits.. which in most cases includes Housing Benefits.. Those on a private pension may make more through a Public Sector or Private Sector pension, but they're looking at rent, and on the average, a 2 bedroom flat will run you £850/month..
Take that off their total..
It makes one wonder..
To look around the elegant city of Antwerp, you wouldn’t know that Belgium has now gone longer without a government than any country in modern history..
The trains still run on time, the teachers show up in their classrooms, museums are packed, taxes are collected, welfare is paid, and the country’s F-16 fighter jets are dropping bombs in Libya.. even though Belgium has now gone a year and a quarter without a federal government, after the 2010 elections produced no majority and the feuding parties became locked in perpetual disagreement over coalition plans..
For some, this might sound like a libertarian’s idea of Utopia.. A country with nobody to raise taxes.. to slash spending.. to introduce major new government programs..
And indeed, Belgium has just managed, despite having only a largely powerless caretaker government, to post a second-quarter economic growth rate.. 0.7%.. that exceeded those of neighbouring Germany, France and Britain.. The assessment of analysts is the country’s world-leading beer industry has remained aloft as the world drinks away its financial sorrows.. And the government deficit has even been cut somewhat..
But beneath the surface, the cracks are beginning to show..
Without anyone at the rudder, tiny Belgium is in danger of colliding with some of the world’s more dangerous currents, and the next few weeks could be decisive..
The problem is drugs, and those who traffic heroin.. When Dutch authorities moved to clean up Rotterdam, which was rife with heroin trafficking.. those dealing death simply moved their operations a couple of hours south, to Antwerp..
A police official with the Antwerp force said.. “Our crime problem now requires the kind of major solution that can only come from the federal government – but it looks like we can’t do anything until we get one..”
“We have a pension crisis that is threatening to overwhelm us, for which we don’t have the means, we haven’t put aside any money, and nobody has decided how to pay all those pensions,” said Yves Desmet, Political Editor of the Flemish newspaper 'De Morgen'.. “And you have a gigantic public debt of almost 100 per cent of GDP and growing..”
Yet it is not at all clear that these problems can be solved, even with a government.. The Flemish parties would like to seize their province’s share of the tax revenue and use it to fund their own, separate programs.. Most of the French speakers would prefer it stay national.. And as the country has gone through 10 attempts to form a government without success, the parties have become even more entrenched in their positions and less compromise-oriented..
As a final insult, it seems that the fiscal problems will strike Belgium at precisely the moment when it forms a government.. assuming it is able to do so by 2012, which is not at all certain.. In that case, the awkward years without a government may be remembered as an economic and political Golden Age..
“It’s not for nothing,” Desmet said, “that Belgium is the birthplace of surrealism.”
How true..
But.. this is how it's affecting those on fixed incomes.. state pensions, be they reflective of lifetime earnings, or disability contributions.. The average basic state pension amounts to some £400/month.. those collecting disability can add another £500/month.. giving a basic gross monthly income of £900.. for those collecting both benefits that is..
Now those in Canada or the US immediately jump for their conversion tables, and say 'that works out to some $1350/month, give or take.. But it must be stressed, that what costs a dollar in North America, costs a Pound here..
Electricity will cost a pensioner a minimum of £40/week.. or £120/month..
Gas will run about the same, on a yearly average.. that's for heating.. we're now at £240/month for basics.. Council tax and Water and Sewerage will cost another £80/month.. Petrol, for those who can still afford to keep a car on the road, is at £1.50/l.. £30 minimum for a weeks driving around town.. when a loaf of bread weighs is at £1.50.loaf.. an average weeks shop will come to £70.. another £280 per month..
Then, back to the car, insurance will run you £340/annum.. or say £28/month.. Road tax is at £150/annum.. £14/month.. Telly License another £25/month..
Now all this adds up to £787..roughly speaking.. and leaves the pensioner with £113/month disposable income.. just over £25/week.. And if you're among the generation that smokes and always has.. a pack of 20 will cost you £7.35.. and there goes your excess..
Not to mention any payments an individual might be making on catalogue purchases or credit cards..
This will be an exceedingly rough time for all in this country.. in fact, for all, everywhere..
But this is the reality, today, for those who's incomes will not increase after strike action.. for those who have worked all their lives for a State Pension, only today to find themselves in a position of virtual poverty..
And, as inflation creeps up, this situation will only get worse. It stands at 4.5% this month.. and expect it to rise despite the efforts of the Bank of England to keep interest rates down..
Now this is just a keyhole look into someone on State Benefits.. which in most cases includes Housing Benefits.. Those on a private pension may make more through a Public Sector or Private Sector pension, but they're looking at rent, and on the average, a 2 bedroom flat will run you £850/month..
Take that off their total..
It makes one wonder..
To look around the elegant city of Antwerp, you wouldn’t know that Belgium has now gone longer without a government than any country in modern history..
The trains still run on time, the teachers show up in their classrooms, museums are packed, taxes are collected, welfare is paid, and the country’s F-16 fighter jets are dropping bombs in Libya.. even though Belgium has now gone a year and a quarter without a federal government, after the 2010 elections produced no majority and the feuding parties became locked in perpetual disagreement over coalition plans..
For some, this might sound like a libertarian’s idea of Utopia.. A country with nobody to raise taxes.. to slash spending.. to introduce major new government programs..
And indeed, Belgium has just managed, despite having only a largely powerless caretaker government, to post a second-quarter economic growth rate.. 0.7%.. that exceeded those of neighbouring Germany, France and Britain.. The assessment of analysts is the country’s world-leading beer industry has remained aloft as the world drinks away its financial sorrows.. And the government deficit has even been cut somewhat..
But beneath the surface, the cracks are beginning to show..
Without anyone at the rudder, tiny Belgium is in danger of colliding with some of the world’s more dangerous currents, and the next few weeks could be decisive..
The problem is drugs, and those who traffic heroin.. When Dutch authorities moved to clean up Rotterdam, which was rife with heroin trafficking.. those dealing death simply moved their operations a couple of hours south, to Antwerp..
A police official with the Antwerp force said.. “Our crime problem now requires the kind of major solution that can only come from the federal government – but it looks like we can’t do anything until we get one..”
“We have a pension crisis that is threatening to overwhelm us, for which we don’t have the means, we haven’t put aside any money, and nobody has decided how to pay all those pensions,” said Yves Desmet, Political Editor of the Flemish newspaper 'De Morgen'.. “And you have a gigantic public debt of almost 100 per cent of GDP and growing..”
Yet it is not at all clear that these problems can be solved, even with a government.. The Flemish parties would like to seize their province’s share of the tax revenue and use it to fund their own, separate programs.. Most of the French speakers would prefer it stay national.. And as the country has gone through 10 attempts to form a government without success, the parties have become even more entrenched in their positions and less compromise-oriented..
As a final insult, it seems that the fiscal problems will strike Belgium at precisely the moment when it forms a government.. assuming it is able to do so by 2012, which is not at all certain.. In that case, the awkward years without a government may be remembered as an economic and political Golden Age..
“It’s not for nothing,” Desmet said, “that Belgium is the birthplace of surrealism.”
How true..
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Is this the beginning of the end..?
As fears grow that Greece will default on it's next round of interest payments.. the word is that that country will be bankrupt by October..
An interjection here.. the markets clawed their way back into positive figures yesterday, and this morning in early trading the FTSE is up almost 38 points..
But this Greek situation is not going to allow investor confidence to recover.. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Sarkozy, and Greek Prime Minister Panandreou will meet this afternoon to discuss this problem of over-extension..
Moody's has downgraded two French banks because of their exposure to this Greek debt..Credit Agricole was cut from Aa1 to Aa2 and Societe Generale from Aa2 to Aa3..
A third bank, BNP Paribas, was kept on review for a possible downgrade.. All three banks' ratings have been on review since the 15th of June, and Moody's decision had been widely anticipated by the markets..
Moody's said all three banks were strong enough to absorb the losses emanating from any Greek debt default..
But, this has led to widespread speculation on the future of the Euro, and in fact, on the future of the EuroZone itself..
As we stated years ago, this European experiment was fraught with dangers.. with all member States tying their economies to the weakest member..
And there is still Italy and Spain to be considered.. while the major problem of Greece remains..
There are some saying that talks over the next few weeks could allow Greece to have the next tranche of bail-out money.. but with that country looking at debts totalling 130 to 140% of it's GDP.. there are real concerns that once again, handing that country more loans is simply forestalling the inevidable..
The question remains.. what can Greece concievably do to reduce it's debt load without driving up inflation and putting the Greek man on the street in an untenable position.. It would seem that this great experiment in an united Europe is heading for failure..
The President of the EU.. Jose Manuel Barroso.. says the entire future of the EuroZone is now in question..
Here in Britain.. Unemployment figures released this morning indicate those out of work rose by 80,000 to 2.51 million in the three months to July..The jobless rate now stands at 7.9%..
Youth unemployment also rose sharply, by 78,000 to 973,000..
The total claiming Jobseeker's Allowance rose by 20,300 in August to 1.58 million..
And perhaps even more disturbing.. the number of people in employment fell in the three months to July.. by 69,000 to 29.17 million..
This is a trend the government is having kittens over.. as our tax base decreases.. so does our ability to maintain social services..
The sad fact is, that in some parts of the country, unemployment has topped those figures seen in the last 'recession'.. indicating that those areas are already presaging that which will be seen throughout the Kingdom in the very near future..
And to add to our problems.. the Trades Union Council is meeting over the next few days, and it's leaders are calling for serious strike action in the coming months.. This could indeed be our 'winter of discontent'.. as literally hundreds of thousands of public sector workers prepare to walk off the job.. The issue for these people, is pensions.. The government has legislated higher pension payments for public sector workers, and this does not sit well with Union leaders..
Unison.. Unite.. the GMB.. and the Fire Brigades' Union.. will consult members about co-ordinated industrial action starting in November.. This will affect such services as garbage collection.. even filtering down to grave diggers.. all the services the public needs to maintain a functioning society..
Now, as the government has warned, this will not bring the public in line with the cause of the workers.. The pensions these public workers are fighting for are on the whole, much more than those outside the umbrella of the TUC..
And in the US.. Another 2.6 million people slipped into poverty last year, the Census Bureau reported yesterday.. and the number of Americans living below the official poverty line, 46.2 million people, was the highest number in the 52 years the Bureau has been publishing figures on it.. And in new signs of distress among the middle class, median household incomes fell last year to levels last seen in 1997..
Economists pointed to a telling statistic.. It was the first time since the Great Depression that median household income, adjusted for inflation, had not risen over such a long period.. that, according to Lawrence Katz, an economics professor at Harvard..
Katz said..“This is truly a lost decade.. We think of America as a place where every generation is doing better, but we’re looking at a period when the median family is in worse shape than it was in the late 1990s.”..
More as the day progresses..
And in India.. People are sick and tired of MPs for causing frequent disruptions of parliament and point out that they take salaries for work not done. The little over month-long monsoon session that just ended saw unceasing bedlam in both the houses over a variety of issues, ranging from the frivolous to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption campaign..
With only 11 bills passed and 14 introduced during the Aug 1st through Sep 8th sitting.. the number of Bills, especially those relating to important economic reforms, awaiting parliamentary passage on their way to becoming the law of the land has risen to an astromical 86..
Vice President and Rajya Sabha chairman M.H. Ansari has decried the loss of productive time of parliament to frequent disruptions.. He called it 'a sad commentary on the right and duty of members to participate meaningfully in the proceedings of the house'..
The middle class is disgusted.. and rightly so..
'So many hours were lost... so few bills passed, I wonder what is the point of having a month-long session for work which can be done in a week and a half,' asked Aashish Khanna, a law student of Delhi University..
India boats the second best growth figures among the industrialised nations, and it, as a market, is something that deserves close attention..
It's typhoon season in the Far East.. and with more rain in the forecast, Thailand has been hit hard..
More than a million people have been displaced by flooding.. and Bankok itself is now in danger from the rising waters..
And the Camper Countdown continues..
As fears grow that Greece will default on it's next round of interest payments.. the word is that that country will be bankrupt by October..
An interjection here.. the markets clawed their way back into positive figures yesterday, and this morning in early trading the FTSE is up almost 38 points..
But this Greek situation is not going to allow investor confidence to recover.. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Sarkozy, and Greek Prime Minister Panandreou will meet this afternoon to discuss this problem of over-extension..
Moody's has downgraded two French banks because of their exposure to this Greek debt..Credit Agricole was cut from Aa1 to Aa2 and Societe Generale from Aa2 to Aa3..
A third bank, BNP Paribas, was kept on review for a possible downgrade.. All three banks' ratings have been on review since the 15th of June, and Moody's decision had been widely anticipated by the markets..
Moody's said all three banks were strong enough to absorb the losses emanating from any Greek debt default..
But, this has led to widespread speculation on the future of the Euro, and in fact, on the future of the EuroZone itself..
As we stated years ago, this European experiment was fraught with dangers.. with all member States tying their economies to the weakest member..
And there is still Italy and Spain to be considered.. while the major problem of Greece remains..
There are some saying that talks over the next few weeks could allow Greece to have the next tranche of bail-out money.. but with that country looking at debts totalling 130 to 140% of it's GDP.. there are real concerns that once again, handing that country more loans is simply forestalling the inevidable..
The question remains.. what can Greece concievably do to reduce it's debt load without driving up inflation and putting the Greek man on the street in an untenable position.. It would seem that this great experiment in an united Europe is heading for failure..
The President of the EU.. Jose Manuel Barroso.. says the entire future of the EuroZone is now in question..
Here in Britain.. Unemployment figures released this morning indicate those out of work rose by 80,000 to 2.51 million in the three months to July..The jobless rate now stands at 7.9%..
Youth unemployment also rose sharply, by 78,000 to 973,000..
The total claiming Jobseeker's Allowance rose by 20,300 in August to 1.58 million..
And perhaps even more disturbing.. the number of people in employment fell in the three months to July.. by 69,000 to 29.17 million..
This is a trend the government is having kittens over.. as our tax base decreases.. so does our ability to maintain social services..
The sad fact is, that in some parts of the country, unemployment has topped those figures seen in the last 'recession'.. indicating that those areas are already presaging that which will be seen throughout the Kingdom in the very near future..
And to add to our problems.. the Trades Union Council is meeting over the next few days, and it's leaders are calling for serious strike action in the coming months.. This could indeed be our 'winter of discontent'.. as literally hundreds of thousands of public sector workers prepare to walk off the job.. The issue for these people, is pensions.. The government has legislated higher pension payments for public sector workers, and this does not sit well with Union leaders..
Unison.. Unite.. the GMB.. and the Fire Brigades' Union.. will consult members about co-ordinated industrial action starting in November.. This will affect such services as garbage collection.. even filtering down to grave diggers.. all the services the public needs to maintain a functioning society..
Now, as the government has warned, this will not bring the public in line with the cause of the workers.. The pensions these public workers are fighting for are on the whole, much more than those outside the umbrella of the TUC..
And in the US.. Another 2.6 million people slipped into poverty last year, the Census Bureau reported yesterday.. and the number of Americans living below the official poverty line, 46.2 million people, was the highest number in the 52 years the Bureau has been publishing figures on it.. And in new signs of distress among the middle class, median household incomes fell last year to levels last seen in 1997..
Economists pointed to a telling statistic.. It was the first time since the Great Depression that median household income, adjusted for inflation, had not risen over such a long period.. that, according to Lawrence Katz, an economics professor at Harvard..
Katz said..“This is truly a lost decade.. We think of America as a place where every generation is doing better, but we’re looking at a period when the median family is in worse shape than it was in the late 1990s.”..
More as the day progresses..
And in India.. People are sick and tired of MPs for causing frequent disruptions of parliament and point out that they take salaries for work not done. The little over month-long monsoon session that just ended saw unceasing bedlam in both the houses over a variety of issues, ranging from the frivolous to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption campaign..
With only 11 bills passed and 14 introduced during the Aug 1st through Sep 8th sitting.. the number of Bills, especially those relating to important economic reforms, awaiting parliamentary passage on their way to becoming the law of the land has risen to an astromical 86..
Vice President and Rajya Sabha chairman M.H. Ansari has decried the loss of productive time of parliament to frequent disruptions.. He called it 'a sad commentary on the right and duty of members to participate meaningfully in the proceedings of the house'..
The middle class is disgusted.. and rightly so..
'So many hours were lost... so few bills passed, I wonder what is the point of having a month-long session for work which can be done in a week and a half,' asked Aashish Khanna, a law student of Delhi University..
India boats the second best growth figures among the industrialised nations, and it, as a market, is something that deserves close attention..
It's typhoon season in the Far East.. and with more rain in the forecast, Thailand has been hit hard..
More than a million people have been displaced by flooding.. and Bankok itself is now in danger from the rising waters..
And the Camper Countdown continues..
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Tensions are rising between Israel and Egypt.. again..
The unrest began after Friday prayers, when thousands converged on Cairo's Tahrir Square to demand faster political reforms following the ousting of former President Hosni Mubarak in February..
From there, hundreds marched on the Israeli embassy.. They smashed through a security wall around the building before a group of about 30 broke in and threw documents out of windows..
Now..Egypt has declared a state of alert.. and Israel has withdrawn all of it's Embassy staff..
One protester is quoted as saying "We've been brought up to hate Israel but now we can express this openly. Since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, no Egyptian blood will go unavenged."..
Disturbing..
A brief history is perhaps called for..
Israeli War of Independence.. "al-Nakba".. or 'The Disaster'.. came days after Israel became a sovereign State back in 1948-1949..Upon independence, Israel was invaded by the armies of six Arab nations.. Egypt, Syria, Transjordan (later Jordan), Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In addition, local Arab Palestinian forces also fought the Israelis..
Following the short Suez War of 1956 between Israel and Egypt which resolved nothing.. only setting the stage for a future war between the Jewish nation and its Arab neighbors.. In the 1956 war, Israeli forces fairly easily defeated the Egypian military and occupied the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip, only to give it back to Egyptian control in the cease-fire agreement.. In the years after 1956, Egypt and the other Arab powers, Syria and Iraq, more closely became aligned with the Soviet Union, which supplied them with large amounts of modern military weaponry and Soviet advisers and trainers..
Likewise, Israel moved closer to the United States in those years, to the point where the Arab- Israeli Conflict became a part of the larger and very dangerous Cold War between the U.S. and its allies on one side, and the Soviets and their allies and satellites on the other..
The introduction of the American-Soviet competition and arms sales in the region only accelerated the likelihood of a Middle Eastern war evolving into a Cold War confrontation..
The immediate cause of war in 1967 came out of Egypt's decision to expel United Nations troops from the Sinai peninsula and blockade Israel's port of Eilat.. The UN forces were intended to form a buffer between the border separating Israel and Egypt, and their expulsion led the Israeli government to fear an imminent attack by Egypt..
It should be pointed out that ever since the start of the first war in 1948, Israel had existed in a continued legal state of war with all of its Arab neighbors, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.. The first two wars were ended with cease-fires, but with no lasting peace.. not unlike the conclusion of the 1950-1953 Korean War, in which an armistice ended the fighting, but did not bring a legal end to war.. Thus, when the military forces of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, as well as Iraq, began to mobilize and make obvious preparations for war, Israel felt forced to act in self-defence.. On June 5, 1967, Israel launched a pre-emptive ground attack on Egypt, along with coordinated air strikes that effectively destroyed the air forces of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq on the ground..
The 1979 Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty was signed in Washington, D.C. on the 26th of March 1979, following the 1978 Camp David Accords, which were signed by Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, and were witnessed by US President Jimmy Carter..
This Accord has lasted.. until now..
There have been protests outside the embassy since the deaths on 18 August of five Egyptian policemen on the border with Israel.. the incident marked a sharp escalation in tensions between Israel and Egypt.. Their 30-year-old peace treaty was already being tested after Egyptian leader Mubarak was forced from office..
Herein the basic problem with this 'Arab Spring'.. With long-time leaders the like of Assad and Mubarak now absent.. It is anyone's guess what faction will replace them..
And as we stated some time ago.. the last country the West wants to see involved in any more Middle Eastern conflicts, is Israel.. There are problems enough with Gaza and the West Bank.. To add other Arab States into the equation, could open yet another front for Western involvement, and frankly, we can neither afford it monetary.. nor can it be ignored and left to Israel to once again take on the combined weight of the Arab League..
Troubling times..
Just as brief note on Barack's 'jobs' address to the nation.. 17 times he told Congress to "Pass this Legislation now.." But it was, as many had feared, a cream-puff speech.. recommending nothing we hadn't been expecting.. and putting the onus on his 'Super Budget Committee' to pare yet more from their cost-cutting plans, to pay for his programs..
Yet the truth of the matter is, that indeed, while doing nothing for the next 14 months or so will not help the American man on the street.. Republicans gain notning by adding their stamp of approval to Barack's plans.. And it's exceedingly doubtfull partisan politics would be discarded, to help the Democrats..
While the options were few for Barack, we had hoped he would have had something more robust to say.. Something to swing that man on the street towards the belief his government is doing all it can to help both the country, but it's individuals..
Underwhelming, to say the least..
The unrest began after Friday prayers, when thousands converged on Cairo's Tahrir Square to demand faster political reforms following the ousting of former President Hosni Mubarak in February..
From there, hundreds marched on the Israeli embassy.. They smashed through a security wall around the building before a group of about 30 broke in and threw documents out of windows..
Now..Egypt has declared a state of alert.. and Israel has withdrawn all of it's Embassy staff..
One protester is quoted as saying "We've been brought up to hate Israel but now we can express this openly. Since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, no Egyptian blood will go unavenged."..
Disturbing..
A brief history is perhaps called for..
Israeli War of Independence.. "al-Nakba".. or 'The Disaster'.. came days after Israel became a sovereign State back in 1948-1949..Upon independence, Israel was invaded by the armies of six Arab nations.. Egypt, Syria, Transjordan (later Jordan), Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In addition, local Arab Palestinian forces also fought the Israelis..
Following the short Suez War of 1956 between Israel and Egypt which resolved nothing.. only setting the stage for a future war between the Jewish nation and its Arab neighbors.. In the 1956 war, Israeli forces fairly easily defeated the Egypian military and occupied the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip, only to give it back to Egyptian control in the cease-fire agreement.. In the years after 1956, Egypt and the other Arab powers, Syria and Iraq, more closely became aligned with the Soviet Union, which supplied them with large amounts of modern military weaponry and Soviet advisers and trainers..
Likewise, Israel moved closer to the United States in those years, to the point where the Arab- Israeli Conflict became a part of the larger and very dangerous Cold War between the U.S. and its allies on one side, and the Soviets and their allies and satellites on the other..
The introduction of the American-Soviet competition and arms sales in the region only accelerated the likelihood of a Middle Eastern war evolving into a Cold War confrontation..
The immediate cause of war in 1967 came out of Egypt's decision to expel United Nations troops from the Sinai peninsula and blockade Israel's port of Eilat.. The UN forces were intended to form a buffer between the border separating Israel and Egypt, and their expulsion led the Israeli government to fear an imminent attack by Egypt..
It should be pointed out that ever since the start of the first war in 1948, Israel had existed in a continued legal state of war with all of its Arab neighbors, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.. The first two wars were ended with cease-fires, but with no lasting peace.. not unlike the conclusion of the 1950-1953 Korean War, in which an armistice ended the fighting, but did not bring a legal end to war.. Thus, when the military forces of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, as well as Iraq, began to mobilize and make obvious preparations for war, Israel felt forced to act in self-defence.. On June 5, 1967, Israel launched a pre-emptive ground attack on Egypt, along with coordinated air strikes that effectively destroyed the air forces of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq on the ground..
The 1979 Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty was signed in Washington, D.C. on the 26th of March 1979, following the 1978 Camp David Accords, which were signed by Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, and were witnessed by US President Jimmy Carter..
This Accord has lasted.. until now..
There have been protests outside the embassy since the deaths on 18 August of five Egyptian policemen on the border with Israel.. the incident marked a sharp escalation in tensions between Israel and Egypt.. Their 30-year-old peace treaty was already being tested after Egyptian leader Mubarak was forced from office..
Herein the basic problem with this 'Arab Spring'.. With long-time leaders the like of Assad and Mubarak now absent.. It is anyone's guess what faction will replace them..
And as we stated some time ago.. the last country the West wants to see involved in any more Middle Eastern conflicts, is Israel.. There are problems enough with Gaza and the West Bank.. To add other Arab States into the equation, could open yet another front for Western involvement, and frankly, we can neither afford it monetary.. nor can it be ignored and left to Israel to once again take on the combined weight of the Arab League..
Troubling times..
Just as brief note on Barack's 'jobs' address to the nation.. 17 times he told Congress to "Pass this Legislation now.." But it was, as many had feared, a cream-puff speech.. recommending nothing we hadn't been expecting.. and putting the onus on his 'Super Budget Committee' to pare yet more from their cost-cutting plans, to pay for his programs..
Yet the truth of the matter is, that indeed, while doing nothing for the next 14 months or so will not help the American man on the street.. Republicans gain notning by adding their stamp of approval to Barack's plans.. And it's exceedingly doubtfull partisan politics would be discarded, to help the Democrats..
While the options were few for Barack, we had hoped he would have had something more robust to say.. Something to swing that man on the street towards the belief his government is doing all it can to help both the country, but it's individuals..
Underwhelming, to say the least..
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Tonight's the night..
At midnight GMT.. Barack will address his nation to outline a 'new' job creation program designed to reduce the horrendous problem a 9% unemployment rate poses.. and deliver his plan to get America back on it's feet..
Frankly, expectations are not optimistic.. He's not even got the full support of his own Party.. Republicans are so certain he won’t offer anything new that some aren’t attending.. Democrats are questioning why the White House is pouring so much of its capital into another big speech.. And both parties are skeptical that any concrete action will come of it in Congress..
But for Obama, the speech is not only likely to be his last, best chance to take a serious stab at jolting the economy.. it’s also an opportunity to rebalance the debate in Washington, where Republicans have been steering the agenda since the November midterm elections.. His task is nearly impossible.. appease liberals.. appeal to independents.. win over some Republicans.. and make a compelling case to Washington-weary voters..
Progressives want Obama to ignore practical political considerations,that is, Republicans control the House.. and offer a package on par with the magnitude of the problem.. That means a plan worth at least $300 billion, with few tax cuts and lots of money for government-financed jobs, direct state aid and infrastructure projects..
They are way past viewing the GOP as a willing partner, and they’re wondering whether the president will agree and pitch a package that appeals to voters, not Capitol Hill Republicans..
The Obama who shows up tonight may be different than the one who hits the road Friday, heading to Richmond to campaign for the package..
Standing in front of Congress, Obama will be urgent and insistent, challenging lawmakers to put the economy ahead of their respective parties and to act on his proposals before the end of the year..
The question is whether Obama will go after Republicans more directly in the speech, as he tends to do on the stump. In essence, whether he will name names as they sit before him and put them on the spot. They are the party of tax cuts. So why are they signaling opposition to extending the payroll tax for workers.?
A partisan tone won’t sit well with Republicans, who are already casting the speech as political, particularly after the White House’s fumbled attempt to schedule it on the same night as the Republican presidential debate.. In a pre-emptive strike, House Speaker John Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor positioned themselves this week as arbiters of compromise..
Obama has tried for months to make a double-edged, seemingly contradictory argument.. The economy needs a short-term government stimulus and a long-term plan to cut government spending..
But for tonight, at least, Obama won’t dwell on the nuanced approach, which makes sense to economists and close observers of the Washington debate but can get lost in translation to the broader public..
Obama will challenge the 12-member congressional supercommittee to exceed its $1.5 trillion goal for budget savings.. setting a higher target that would allow additional money to fund tax breaks and other stimulus spending..
Obama speaks during the dinner hour on the East Coast and during the workday on the West Coast, and the broad outlines of the package are already known.. not exactly a recipe for big Nielsen ratings..
In Washington, a handful of Republican lawmakers are boycotting it, including Rep. Joe Walsh of Illinois.. Rep. Paul Broun of Georgia.. and Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina.. Even some Democrats are cynical about the prospect of another whip-cream speech.. tasty but not filling..
According to a Democratic aide.. “The question isn’t, what will the speech say. The question is, what does he do after the speech is over..”
As they say, the proof of the pudding, is in the eating.. And the sad truth is, there is effectively nothing Barack can do other than offer a quick fix.. As said before, this is a global situation, one in which the economies of all countries are either in bankruptcy, or close to it..
Barack's one solution to reduce unemployment figures is to institute FDR's prototype 'New Deal'.. but once the American infrastructure is intact, the problem of these huge debts will still dangle like a Sword of Damocles over that country..
In this, the US is no different from any other country in these disturbed times.. It will take decades of education for the masses to accept the consequences of the sequences which led us here.. and educated they must be..
That, will not be in tonight's speech..
It is interesting to note, that analysts are universally pessimistic.. All our conditions for a recession are already in place.. The horrid connotation of the word 'Depression' has kept it out of sight.. Yet, in the classical sense, we have already filled all the criteria for that label..
But again, that won't be part of tonights speech..
At midnight GMT.. Barack will address his nation to outline a 'new' job creation program designed to reduce the horrendous problem a 9% unemployment rate poses.. and deliver his plan to get America back on it's feet..
Frankly, expectations are not optimistic.. He's not even got the full support of his own Party.. Republicans are so certain he won’t offer anything new that some aren’t attending.. Democrats are questioning why the White House is pouring so much of its capital into another big speech.. And both parties are skeptical that any concrete action will come of it in Congress..
But for Obama, the speech is not only likely to be his last, best chance to take a serious stab at jolting the economy.. it’s also an opportunity to rebalance the debate in Washington, where Republicans have been steering the agenda since the November midterm elections.. His task is nearly impossible.. appease liberals.. appeal to independents.. win over some Republicans.. and make a compelling case to Washington-weary voters..
Progressives want Obama to ignore practical political considerations,that is, Republicans control the House.. and offer a package on par with the magnitude of the problem.. That means a plan worth at least $300 billion, with few tax cuts and lots of money for government-financed jobs, direct state aid and infrastructure projects..
They are way past viewing the GOP as a willing partner, and they’re wondering whether the president will agree and pitch a package that appeals to voters, not Capitol Hill Republicans..
The Obama who shows up tonight may be different than the one who hits the road Friday, heading to Richmond to campaign for the package..
Standing in front of Congress, Obama will be urgent and insistent, challenging lawmakers to put the economy ahead of their respective parties and to act on his proposals before the end of the year..
The question is whether Obama will go after Republicans more directly in the speech, as he tends to do on the stump. In essence, whether he will name names as they sit before him and put them on the spot. They are the party of tax cuts. So why are they signaling opposition to extending the payroll tax for workers.?
A partisan tone won’t sit well with Republicans, who are already casting the speech as political, particularly after the White House’s fumbled attempt to schedule it on the same night as the Republican presidential debate.. In a pre-emptive strike, House Speaker John Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor positioned themselves this week as arbiters of compromise..
Obama has tried for months to make a double-edged, seemingly contradictory argument.. The economy needs a short-term government stimulus and a long-term plan to cut government spending..
But for tonight, at least, Obama won’t dwell on the nuanced approach, which makes sense to economists and close observers of the Washington debate but can get lost in translation to the broader public..
Obama will challenge the 12-member congressional supercommittee to exceed its $1.5 trillion goal for budget savings.. setting a higher target that would allow additional money to fund tax breaks and other stimulus spending..
Obama speaks during the dinner hour on the East Coast and during the workday on the West Coast, and the broad outlines of the package are already known.. not exactly a recipe for big Nielsen ratings..
In Washington, a handful of Republican lawmakers are boycotting it, including Rep. Joe Walsh of Illinois.. Rep. Paul Broun of Georgia.. and Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina.. Even some Democrats are cynical about the prospect of another whip-cream speech.. tasty but not filling..
According to a Democratic aide.. “The question isn’t, what will the speech say. The question is, what does he do after the speech is over..”
As they say, the proof of the pudding, is in the eating.. And the sad truth is, there is effectively nothing Barack can do other than offer a quick fix.. As said before, this is a global situation, one in which the economies of all countries are either in bankruptcy, or close to it..
Barack's one solution to reduce unemployment figures is to institute FDR's prototype 'New Deal'.. but once the American infrastructure is intact, the problem of these huge debts will still dangle like a Sword of Damocles over that country..
In this, the US is no different from any other country in these disturbed times.. It will take decades of education for the masses to accept the consequences of the sequences which led us here.. and educated they must be..
That, will not be in tonight's speech..
It is interesting to note, that analysts are universally pessimistic.. All our conditions for a recession are already in place.. The horrid connotation of the word 'Depression' has kept it out of sight.. Yet, in the classical sense, we have already filled all the criteria for that label..
But again, that won't be part of tonights speech..
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
A brief note to start the day..
Europe’s austerity initiatives are beginning to show signs of backfiring, even as governments prepare to tighten their belts further..
Waning growth in two key sectors of the European economy.. another poor election showing by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s pro-bailout party and plunging bank shares heightened fears that a new recession cannot be avoided.. Those fears gained momentum when Christine Lagarde, the new head of the IMF, warned that the global economy is on the brink of a fresh crisis..
Efforts to rein in spending are hurting growth just when it is needed most to shake off the debt crisis, boost employment and restore consumer and business confidence.. High growth rates allowed Canada to overcome its 1990s debt crisis relatively quickly.. In contrast, European deficit-busting efforts are coming when growth is low to non-existent, implying there will be no quick fix to the debt problems..
“We see that there has been, particularly over the summer, a clear crisis of confidence that has seriously aggravated the situation,” Largarde, France’s former Finance Minister, said in an interview published Sunday in the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel.. “Measures need to be taken to ensure that this vicious circle is broken.”..
Our Justice Secretary, Ken Clarke, has laid the blame for last months riots on a 'broken penal system'.. Apparently three quarters of those either convicted of riot related offences, or are awaiting trial, have existing criminal records, some of those for 'serious crimes'..
He said the "hardcore" of those involved were known criminals whose behaviour had not been changed by previous punishments..
Clarke lays the blame for such recidivism on the penal system, saying there was not nearly enough emphasis put on rehabilitation..
Clarke argued that this made his efforts to reform the penal system and cut reoffending even more important..
The government is piloting payment-by-results schemes for private firms who successfully rehabilitate offenders.. an incentive program, so to speak..
Clarke has argued that fewer criminals should be sent to prison, suggesting that tough community punishments would be more effective at reducing reoffending..
And this is a stance that we have taken for years.. that those convicted of minor infractions who are given custodial sentences are merely being enrolled in a 'school for scoundrels'..
With Colonel Muammar Gaddafi all but gone, Libya's prospects can be summed up in one word.. oil..
Far different from the revolutions in Tunisia or Egypt, or the rebellions in Yemen, Bahrain or Syria, the possibilities of Libya's new leaders either forging a new democracy or being forced to fight a lingering insurgency could depend heavily on how they kick-start the oil sector, which accounts for about 95% of Libya's earnings and which will finance virtually every penny of Libyans' public services..
How easily the oil industry can piece itself together is unclear, however. Listening to Ali Tarhouni, the Oil and Finance Minister for the rebels' National Transitional Council, it sounds simple enough.. That the six-month war appeared to have damaged only "about 10%" of the oil infrastructure, and also said he was astonished to discover that Gaddafi's forces had not blown up or burnt key facilities.. the likes of the oil refinery in Zawiyah, 30 miles west of Tripoli.. as they faced a devastating defeat.. Libya's oil production has plummeted since the revolt erupted in February to an all-time low last month of about 60,000 barrels a day.. That's a trickle compared to the production of 1.6 million barrels a day last January.. Tarhouni claims that gas pipelines will reopen almost immediately.. which is good news for Italians, who import 25% of their gas from Libya, and that his country could pump about 500,000 barrels of oil a day within four months and return to prewar levels within a year..
With the NTC overwhelmed with securing the country, defeating the last Gaddafi holdouts and hunting down the colonel himself, Tarhouni's team could delay renegotiating oil contracts for years..
Take Iraq, for example.. there, the government waited six years after Saddam Hussein's regime collapsed in 2003 before signing its first new oil contract.. The Libyan council has said it will honor the current contracts signed with big oil companies, including deals with BP, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil and many others.. But they also insist Libya's oil industry will work very differently once a new government is in place, and that they could open up bids to new players like China and Malaysia..
Asian stocks fell but Europe regained its balance this morning after several tumultuous sessions of trading sparked by the bleak U.S. jobs picture.. Swiss shares soared after the country's central bank moved to control the strong franc..
Oil slid below $84/barrel amid expectations that continued weakness in developed economies will crimp demand for crude.. The greenback gained against the Euro but was lower against the Yen..
European shares headed higher in early trading after a steep sell-off..
Worrisome American employment figures and the possible spread of Europe's sovereign debt crisis from small economies like Greece to major ones like Italy are stoking investor fears.. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have already needed to be rescued with loans from the IMF and Europe, but Italy is regarded as too large to bail out..
Gold shares were among the gainers this morning.. as prices for the precious metal hovered near record highs.. Hong Kong-listed Zijin Mining Group, China's largest gold miner, rose 2.3%.. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's No.1 gold miner, rose 0.9%..
We'll see what develops as the day goes on..
Europe’s austerity initiatives are beginning to show signs of backfiring, even as governments prepare to tighten their belts further..
Waning growth in two key sectors of the European economy.. another poor election showing by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s pro-bailout party and plunging bank shares heightened fears that a new recession cannot be avoided.. Those fears gained momentum when Christine Lagarde, the new head of the IMF, warned that the global economy is on the brink of a fresh crisis..
Efforts to rein in spending are hurting growth just when it is needed most to shake off the debt crisis, boost employment and restore consumer and business confidence.. High growth rates allowed Canada to overcome its 1990s debt crisis relatively quickly.. In contrast, European deficit-busting efforts are coming when growth is low to non-existent, implying there will be no quick fix to the debt problems..
“We see that there has been, particularly over the summer, a clear crisis of confidence that has seriously aggravated the situation,” Largarde, France’s former Finance Minister, said in an interview published Sunday in the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel.. “Measures need to be taken to ensure that this vicious circle is broken.”..
Our Justice Secretary, Ken Clarke, has laid the blame for last months riots on a 'broken penal system'.. Apparently three quarters of those either convicted of riot related offences, or are awaiting trial, have existing criminal records, some of those for 'serious crimes'..
He said the "hardcore" of those involved were known criminals whose behaviour had not been changed by previous punishments..
Clarke lays the blame for such recidivism on the penal system, saying there was not nearly enough emphasis put on rehabilitation..
Clarke argued that this made his efforts to reform the penal system and cut reoffending even more important..
The government is piloting payment-by-results schemes for private firms who successfully rehabilitate offenders.. an incentive program, so to speak..
Clarke has argued that fewer criminals should be sent to prison, suggesting that tough community punishments would be more effective at reducing reoffending..
And this is a stance that we have taken for years.. that those convicted of minor infractions who are given custodial sentences are merely being enrolled in a 'school for scoundrels'..
With Colonel Muammar Gaddafi all but gone, Libya's prospects can be summed up in one word.. oil..
Far different from the revolutions in Tunisia or Egypt, or the rebellions in Yemen, Bahrain or Syria, the possibilities of Libya's new leaders either forging a new democracy or being forced to fight a lingering insurgency could depend heavily on how they kick-start the oil sector, which accounts for about 95% of Libya's earnings and which will finance virtually every penny of Libyans' public services..
How easily the oil industry can piece itself together is unclear, however. Listening to Ali Tarhouni, the Oil and Finance Minister for the rebels' National Transitional Council, it sounds simple enough.. That the six-month war appeared to have damaged only "about 10%" of the oil infrastructure, and also said he was astonished to discover that Gaddafi's forces had not blown up or burnt key facilities.. the likes of the oil refinery in Zawiyah, 30 miles west of Tripoli.. as they faced a devastating defeat.. Libya's oil production has plummeted since the revolt erupted in February to an all-time low last month of about 60,000 barrels a day.. That's a trickle compared to the production of 1.6 million barrels a day last January.. Tarhouni claims that gas pipelines will reopen almost immediately.. which is good news for Italians, who import 25% of their gas from Libya, and that his country could pump about 500,000 barrels of oil a day within four months and return to prewar levels within a year..
With the NTC overwhelmed with securing the country, defeating the last Gaddafi holdouts and hunting down the colonel himself, Tarhouni's team could delay renegotiating oil contracts for years..
Take Iraq, for example.. there, the government waited six years after Saddam Hussein's regime collapsed in 2003 before signing its first new oil contract.. The Libyan council has said it will honor the current contracts signed with big oil companies, including deals with BP, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil and many others.. But they also insist Libya's oil industry will work very differently once a new government is in place, and that they could open up bids to new players like China and Malaysia..
Asian stocks fell but Europe regained its balance this morning after several tumultuous sessions of trading sparked by the bleak U.S. jobs picture.. Swiss shares soared after the country's central bank moved to control the strong franc..
Oil slid below $84/barrel amid expectations that continued weakness in developed economies will crimp demand for crude.. The greenback gained against the Euro but was lower against the Yen..
European shares headed higher in early trading after a steep sell-off..
Worrisome American employment figures and the possible spread of Europe's sovereign debt crisis from small economies like Greece to major ones like Italy are stoking investor fears.. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have already needed to be rescued with loans from the IMF and Europe, but Italy is regarded as too large to bail out..
Gold shares were among the gainers this morning.. as prices for the precious metal hovered near record highs.. Hong Kong-listed Zijin Mining Group, China's largest gold miner, rose 2.3%.. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's No.1 gold miner, rose 0.9%..
We'll see what develops as the day goes on..
Monday, September 05, 2011
Ahh well.. it's a development we've been awaiting for months..
Stock market indices fell around the world today, with a report of flat U.S. job growth in August spooking investors in Europe and North America..
In Toronto, the S&P/TSX declined 98.33 points, or 0.77%, to 12602.41, led by selloffs in industrials, energy and basic materials.. Shares of Silvercorp Metals dropped almost 10%, Sherritt International more than 6% and Precision Drilling by 5%.. Gold producers showed the best gains.. Golden Star Resources surged 12%, NovaGold Resources gained 7% and Barrick Gold added 3%.. as investors scramble to find a safe haven for their money.. Gold prices climbed by $55/ounce to $1,884.10 while crude oil prices dipped by $2.33, or almost 3%, to $86.60..
In New York, the Dow Jones lost 253.31 points, or 2.2%, to close at 11240.26.. The Dow is now back into negative territory for the year, off 2.9%..
Financials and industrials led the selloff in the U.S.. Bank of America fell more than 8% after a report that a dozen U.S. banks will be sued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency for allegedly misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities they assembled and sold at the housing bubble’s peak..
This has all the earmarks of a cold winter..
The greatest fear is.. that the US is rapidly falling into recession again..
The lack of hiring in the U.S. last month surprised economists, who were expecting about 93,000 jobs to be added.. Previously reported hiring figures for June and July were revised lower.. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%, the U.S. government reported today..
In Asia, indexes closed sharply lower.. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average sank 1.9%..with sentiment also undermined by the persistent strength of the yen, which hurts exporters..
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.4%, and South Korea's Kospi slid 4.4 %.. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid three%.. Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand and the Philippines also were down..
Mainland Chinese investors worried about the economic outlook dumped shares, dragging Shanghai's benchmark Composite Index down two%, its lowest close in 13 months.. The Shenzhen Composite Index lost 2.4%..
Traders waited for signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve might take action at its September meeting to support the economy.. perhaps a third round of bond purchases, dubbed 'Quantitative Easing III'.. or QE3..
"Right now the possibility has increased," said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong. "I think they have to do something. The markets are expecting QE3."..
An international debt inspectors' review of Greece's finances was interrupted today amid disagreements over the country's deficit figures.. The review will be resumed in about 10 days and must be completed in order for the country to receive the next tranche of bailout loans at the end of the month..
Signs that the Italian government's commitment to its austerity program is wavering have also shaken investors.. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's government has backtracked on some deficit-cutting measures, prompting EU economic officials to urge it to stick to its promised plan..
Ex-Chancellor Lord Lawson has thrown in his tuppence here.. he says David Cameron should use the EuroZone crisis as an opportunity to tear up the Lisbon Treaty..
The Tory peer accuses the architects of the Euro of "grotesque irresponsibility" for embarking on a "misbegotten and predictably disastrous venture"..
And he urges the Prime Minister to tell them "enough is enough"..
And that's the best advice offered of late.. Lord Lawson was chancellor under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s..
And truth be told, we've built entire economies on nebulous computer generated unimaginable figures.. Sums utterly beyond comprehention, even to those who administer the 'money'.. Such has been the depth of our follies, that it has come down to affecting us all..
While it is difficult to get a mortgage without a sizeable downpayment.. there are those who will never have the wherewithall to save ten or fifteen thousand.. and who's income is taken entirely for the simple basics..
We will watch this play out, as the next tranche for Greece approaches.. but nations aside, we're all in for hard times ahead.. Interest rates are being kept low to rein inflation, yet we still have a rate of 5% and rising.. Unemployment is going to bankrupt us, and that includes the EuroZone and the US..
Barack has to follow the plan we set out some months ago.. a new 'New Deal'.. or as one Nobel Lauriate said, 'restructure the nations infrastructure'..
American highways are notoriously bad..
In the early days of the Obama administration, organized labor had grand visions of pushing through a sweeping agenda that would help boost sagging membership and help revive union strength.. Now labor faces this reality: Public employee unions are in a drawn-out fight for their very survival in Wisconsin, Ohio and other states where GOP lawmakers have curbed collective bargaining rights..
Also, many union leaders are grousing that the president they worked so hard to elect has not focused enough on job creation and other bold plans to get their members back to work..
"Obama campaigned big, but he's governing small," said Larry Hanley, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union..
Labor remains a core Democratic constituency and union leaders will stand with Obama in Detroit this Labor Day, where he will address thousands of rank-and-file members during the city's annual parade Monday.. But how long this support will last, is entirely dependant on the next moves by the President.. It is of paramount importance that he get unemployment down, and not a little, but a lot..
And to add to Baracks woes..
The United States Postal Service has long lived on the financial edge, but it has never been as close to the precipice as it is today.. the agency is so low on cash that it will not be able to make a $5.5 billion payment due this month and may have to shut down entirely this winter unless Congress takes emergency action to stabilize its finances.. According to the Postmaster General, Patrick R. Donahoe..“Our situation is extremely serious..If Congress doesn’t act, we will default.” In recent weeks, Donahoe has been pushing a series of painful cost-cutting measures to erase the agency’s deficit, which will reach $9.2 billion this fiscal year.. They include eliminating Saturday mail delivery, closing up to 3,700 postal locations and laying off 120,000 workers.. nearly one-fifth of the agency’s work force.. and this in the face of a no-layoffs clause in the unions’ contracts..
The post office’s problems stem from one hard reality.. it is being squeezed on both revenue and costs..
As any computer user knows, the Internet revolution has led to people and businesses sending far less conventional mail..
It was a brief lesson from American history that served as a not so subtle suggestion for contemporary Europe.. When an official from a European central bank met recently with a financial official in Washington, his host pulled out the Articles of Confederation, the 1781 precursor to the U.S. Constitution, to use as talking points..
The message was clear.. join together in a stronger union, or risk collapse..
The story of America’s failed early effort to operate as a loose confederation of 13 states is increasingly relevant for many European officials who are grappling with the drastic problems of their own flawed 17-nation currency union.. The lack of strong central coordination of the EuroZone’s debt and spending policies is a key reason Europe has been unable to resolve its financial crisis despite more than 18 months of trying..
And that is why, despite all the political obstacles, Europe appears to be inching closer to a more centralized fiscal union that would eventually turn the Euro Zone into something resembling a United States of Europe..
Now.. where have we read that before..
With the new bailout for Greece that was agreed upon by European leaders in July still awaiting approval from each country in the EuroZone, the fractionalized way that Europe runs fiscal decision-making risks setting off yet another crisis at each step along the way.. Every plan requires agreement among finance ministers and the Parliament of any member country can veto the deal..
Many economists say that the Continent’s debt crisis, which began in early 2010 with the threat that Greece might have to default on its loans, could have been resolved far more quickly if there were some sort of central financial body, akin to the Treasury Department in the United States..
What is it we have come to.. and how fortunate Britain has kept the EuroZone at arms length..
Japan braced for more heavy rain and floods come Monday as the death toll from the worst typhoon to hit the country in seven years climbed to 34.. Rescuers searched for 55 others who remained missing, and tens of thousands of families struggled without power or telephone service..
Typhoon Talas.. which was later downgraded to a tropical storm.. lashed coastal areas with destructive winds and record-setting rains over this past weekend before moving offshore into the Sea of Japan.. Thousands were stranded as it washed out bridges, railways and roads..
The destruction added more misery to a nation still reeling from a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami six months ago.. In one of his first acts in office.. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, sworn in just one day before Talas made landfall.. vowed the government would provide as much assistance as quickly as it could..
Still with weather.. Gulf Coast residents from Texas to Florida braced for a third day of severe weather as the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee continued to lash the region as it moved inland..
The National Weather Service indicated flood and flash flood watches and warnings were in effect from coastal Texas into the Gulf states, with 10 to 15 inches of rain expected..
Heavy rains will continue to expand northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachian mountains through next week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches expected and isolated amounts of 12 inches possible..
"These may cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides," the weather service said..
Stock market indices fell around the world today, with a report of flat U.S. job growth in August spooking investors in Europe and North America..
In Toronto, the S&P/TSX declined 98.33 points, or 0.77%, to 12602.41, led by selloffs in industrials, energy and basic materials.. Shares of Silvercorp Metals dropped almost 10%, Sherritt International more than 6% and Precision Drilling by 5%.. Gold producers showed the best gains.. Golden Star Resources surged 12%, NovaGold Resources gained 7% and Barrick Gold added 3%.. as investors scramble to find a safe haven for their money.. Gold prices climbed by $55/ounce to $1,884.10 while crude oil prices dipped by $2.33, or almost 3%, to $86.60..
In New York, the Dow Jones lost 253.31 points, or 2.2%, to close at 11240.26.. The Dow is now back into negative territory for the year, off 2.9%..
Financials and industrials led the selloff in the U.S.. Bank of America fell more than 8% after a report that a dozen U.S. banks will be sued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency for allegedly misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities they assembled and sold at the housing bubble’s peak..
This has all the earmarks of a cold winter..
The greatest fear is.. that the US is rapidly falling into recession again..
The lack of hiring in the U.S. last month surprised economists, who were expecting about 93,000 jobs to be added.. Previously reported hiring figures for June and July were revised lower.. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%, the U.S. government reported today..
In Asia, indexes closed sharply lower.. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average sank 1.9%..with sentiment also undermined by the persistent strength of the yen, which hurts exporters..
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.4%, and South Korea's Kospi slid 4.4 %.. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid three%.. Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand and the Philippines also were down..
Mainland Chinese investors worried about the economic outlook dumped shares, dragging Shanghai's benchmark Composite Index down two%, its lowest close in 13 months.. The Shenzhen Composite Index lost 2.4%..
Traders waited for signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve might take action at its September meeting to support the economy.. perhaps a third round of bond purchases, dubbed 'Quantitative Easing III'.. or QE3..
"Right now the possibility has increased," said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong. "I think they have to do something. The markets are expecting QE3."..
An international debt inspectors' review of Greece's finances was interrupted today amid disagreements over the country's deficit figures.. The review will be resumed in about 10 days and must be completed in order for the country to receive the next tranche of bailout loans at the end of the month..
Signs that the Italian government's commitment to its austerity program is wavering have also shaken investors.. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's government has backtracked on some deficit-cutting measures, prompting EU economic officials to urge it to stick to its promised plan..
Ex-Chancellor Lord Lawson has thrown in his tuppence here.. he says David Cameron should use the EuroZone crisis as an opportunity to tear up the Lisbon Treaty..
The Tory peer accuses the architects of the Euro of "grotesque irresponsibility" for embarking on a "misbegotten and predictably disastrous venture"..
And he urges the Prime Minister to tell them "enough is enough"..
And that's the best advice offered of late.. Lord Lawson was chancellor under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s..
And truth be told, we've built entire economies on nebulous computer generated unimaginable figures.. Sums utterly beyond comprehention, even to those who administer the 'money'.. Such has been the depth of our follies, that it has come down to affecting us all..
While it is difficult to get a mortgage without a sizeable downpayment.. there are those who will never have the wherewithall to save ten or fifteen thousand.. and who's income is taken entirely for the simple basics..
We will watch this play out, as the next tranche for Greece approaches.. but nations aside, we're all in for hard times ahead.. Interest rates are being kept low to rein inflation, yet we still have a rate of 5% and rising.. Unemployment is going to bankrupt us, and that includes the EuroZone and the US..
Barack has to follow the plan we set out some months ago.. a new 'New Deal'.. or as one Nobel Lauriate said, 'restructure the nations infrastructure'..
American highways are notoriously bad..
In the early days of the Obama administration, organized labor had grand visions of pushing through a sweeping agenda that would help boost sagging membership and help revive union strength.. Now labor faces this reality: Public employee unions are in a drawn-out fight for their very survival in Wisconsin, Ohio and other states where GOP lawmakers have curbed collective bargaining rights..
Also, many union leaders are grousing that the president they worked so hard to elect has not focused enough on job creation and other bold plans to get their members back to work..
"Obama campaigned big, but he's governing small," said Larry Hanley, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union..
Labor remains a core Democratic constituency and union leaders will stand with Obama in Detroit this Labor Day, where he will address thousands of rank-and-file members during the city's annual parade Monday.. But how long this support will last, is entirely dependant on the next moves by the President.. It is of paramount importance that he get unemployment down, and not a little, but a lot..
And to add to Baracks woes..
The United States Postal Service has long lived on the financial edge, but it has never been as close to the precipice as it is today.. the agency is so low on cash that it will not be able to make a $5.5 billion payment due this month and may have to shut down entirely this winter unless Congress takes emergency action to stabilize its finances.. According to the Postmaster General, Patrick R. Donahoe..“Our situation is extremely serious..If Congress doesn’t act, we will default.” In recent weeks, Donahoe has been pushing a series of painful cost-cutting measures to erase the agency’s deficit, which will reach $9.2 billion this fiscal year.. They include eliminating Saturday mail delivery, closing up to 3,700 postal locations and laying off 120,000 workers.. nearly one-fifth of the agency’s work force.. and this in the face of a no-layoffs clause in the unions’ contracts..
The post office’s problems stem from one hard reality.. it is being squeezed on both revenue and costs..
As any computer user knows, the Internet revolution has led to people and businesses sending far less conventional mail..
It was a brief lesson from American history that served as a not so subtle suggestion for contemporary Europe.. When an official from a European central bank met recently with a financial official in Washington, his host pulled out the Articles of Confederation, the 1781 precursor to the U.S. Constitution, to use as talking points..
The message was clear.. join together in a stronger union, or risk collapse..
The story of America’s failed early effort to operate as a loose confederation of 13 states is increasingly relevant for many European officials who are grappling with the drastic problems of their own flawed 17-nation currency union.. The lack of strong central coordination of the EuroZone’s debt and spending policies is a key reason Europe has been unable to resolve its financial crisis despite more than 18 months of trying..
And that is why, despite all the political obstacles, Europe appears to be inching closer to a more centralized fiscal union that would eventually turn the Euro Zone into something resembling a United States of Europe..
Now.. where have we read that before..
With the new bailout for Greece that was agreed upon by European leaders in July still awaiting approval from each country in the EuroZone, the fractionalized way that Europe runs fiscal decision-making risks setting off yet another crisis at each step along the way.. Every plan requires agreement among finance ministers and the Parliament of any member country can veto the deal..
Many economists say that the Continent’s debt crisis, which began in early 2010 with the threat that Greece might have to default on its loans, could have been resolved far more quickly if there were some sort of central financial body, akin to the Treasury Department in the United States..
What is it we have come to.. and how fortunate Britain has kept the EuroZone at arms length..
Japan braced for more heavy rain and floods come Monday as the death toll from the worst typhoon to hit the country in seven years climbed to 34.. Rescuers searched for 55 others who remained missing, and tens of thousands of families struggled without power or telephone service..
Typhoon Talas.. which was later downgraded to a tropical storm.. lashed coastal areas with destructive winds and record-setting rains over this past weekend before moving offshore into the Sea of Japan.. Thousands were stranded as it washed out bridges, railways and roads..
The destruction added more misery to a nation still reeling from a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami six months ago.. In one of his first acts in office.. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, sworn in just one day before Talas made landfall.. vowed the government would provide as much assistance as quickly as it could..
Still with weather.. Gulf Coast residents from Texas to Florida braced for a third day of severe weather as the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee continued to lash the region as it moved inland..
The National Weather Service indicated flood and flash flood watches and warnings were in effect from coastal Texas into the Gulf states, with 10 to 15 inches of rain expected..
Heavy rains will continue to expand northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachian mountains through next week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches expected and isolated amounts of 12 inches possible..
"These may cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides," the weather service said..
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Okay.. back to the stories of the day..
Libya's interim leader gave forces loyal to deposed ruler Muammar Gaddafi a four-day deadline today to surrender towns they still control, or face a bloody end to a war that the new leadership said has so far killed 50,000 people..
As the hunt for Gaddafi himself goes on, Libyan officials accused Algeria of an act of aggression for giving refuge to his fleeing wife and three of his children, as well as, it turned out, to a new grand-daughter, born this morning..
Algeria's Foreign Ministry said Gaddafi's wife Safia, and his sons Hannibal and Mohammed had entered Algeria yesterday, along with their children..
But what the rebels want to bring a definitive end to this, is Mohammar himself.. and again, until he's found, the struggle will continue..
Anti-Gaddafi forces have converged on Sirte from east and west, but have stopped short of an all-out assault in hopes of arranging a negotiated surrender of Gaddafi's birth-place..
Mustafa Abdel Jalil, head of Libya's interim council, told a news conference.."By Saturday, if there are no peaceful indications for implementing this, we will decide this matter militarily. We do not wish to do so but we cannot wait longer.."
Meanwhile, in the States.. Consumers' confidence in August dropped almost 15 points to the lowest level since April 2009 as worries about the economy fueled the wildest stock market swings since the financial meltdown in 2008..
At a time when Americans are increasingly worried about a weak job market, higher costs for food and clothing and recent stock market turmoil, the falling confidence numbers raise new concerns about their willingness to spend and jump start the economy.. That's particularly important since consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. economic activity..
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 44.5, down from a revised 59.2 in July.. The number was the lowest level since April 2009 when the reading was 40.8.. It also is far below the 53.3 that analysts had expected..
A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing.. above 100 signals strong growth..
Today's figures do not bode well.. Besides debt talks and market fluctuations, Americans are still plagued by old economic worries.. The nation's unemployment rate is stuck at 9%.. Home values remain weak.. And shoppers are facing rising costs for everything from food to clothing as retailers try to offset their higher costs for labor and materials..
And, closer to home.. There has rarely been a gloomier bunch of central bankers and other top-level finance officials than the ones who gathered at Jackson Hole last week for their annual August gabfest.. It’s not as if most of them are a load of laughs at the best of times, but as part of their job, they can usually be counted on to find some ray of sunshine on even the darkest days..
Now, most of them acknowledge.. at least privately.. that they have pretty much run out of options if the sputtering global economy slides back into reverse and the financial system starts to come unglued again..
Then we had newly minted IMF Chief Christine Lagarde spelling out the problem for anyone willing to listen.. essentially warning that the European banks can’t be held together with Crazy Glue and paper clips much longer and that if they aren’t fixed soon, we’re heading for another whopper of a financial and economic crisis.. Freed of her government shackles, the former French finance minister pulled no punches in her first major speech to the August audience.. Lagarde declared flatly that European banks “need urgent recapitalization. They must be strong enough to withstand the risks of sovereigns and weak growth. This is key to cutting the chains of contagion. If it is not addressed, we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, or even a debilitating liquidity crisis.”
Now just where this recapitalization is going to come from, is anyone's guess..
Her proposal amounts to basically this.. “mandatory substantial recapitalization.. seeking private resources first, but using public funds if necessary.” and that means adopting the much-criticized but largely effective U.S. policy that forced major banks to accept capital infusions from Washington whether they wanted the money or not.. Lagarde suggested the European Financial Stability Fund or some other form of European-wide financing could be used to pump money directly into the banks and hence ease pressure on vulnerable governments facing bond market assaults..
The response, predictably, has been howls of outrage in European political and banking circles. A Reuters headline summed up the attitude: “Europe snubs IMF call to force-feed bank capital.”..
European policy-makers and bankers insist they have done more than enough to cushion the banks from major blows. They said her remarks only served to undermine confidence in the international financial system..
That begs the question.. what confidence..?
Back to the international picture for a moment..
He should be a member of the Federal Reserve Board.. Peter Diamond, the MIT professor who shared the Nobel Prize in economics last year for his work on labour markets, failed to convince some stubborn Republicans that he was qualified to work at the central bank..
Alabama’s Richard Shelby, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, was adamant that Prof. Diamond was ill-suited for the Fed because he lacked a background in monetary policy. Few thought Mr. Shelby’s refusal to clear Prof. Diamond’s nomination was anything more than crass partisan obstructionism. The Fed, after all, has a legislative mandate to maintain maximum employment..
Forget the debt-ceiling debate.. the failure of the President to put a Nobel laureate at the central bank was the moment when it became clear something was seriously wrong in Washington. But if there’s a silver lining to this episode, it’s that Prof. Diamond is free to air his views on economic policy at an important time..
Here's a rough sketch of the package Diamond would have put in place..
It would recapitalize smaller banks and it would allow bankruptcy judges to rewrite mortgages.. The former are the primary lenders to entrepreneurs, who create jobs faster than established companies; the later would create an incentive for banks to avoid foreclosures..
Prof. Diamond’s centrepiece would be a “big” infrastructure program.. But not for the reasons you are thinking.. “This is not Keynes, let’s dig holes.”.. Diamond dislikes infrastructure spending as a stimulus in a normal recession because it takes too long to get the money in the system..that's the the “shovel-ready” problem..
The persistent problem, even with this plan, remains.. And that would be the raising of new capital.. With this being a global problem, traditional markets will shrink.. “Absent another insanity over the debt limit, we’ve got a decade before anyone is going to worry about the U.S.’s ability to pay for these things,” Diamond said. “What I worry about is we have an elephant sized problem and I hope we don’t just get flea-sized proposals.”..
In the flea-sized camp is the current Obama administration proposal to create an infrastructure bank.. “The government should just up and do it,” Diamond said, explaining that creating a new entity that would use tax money to leverage private funds would only waste time.. A bank might bring private-sector expertise into the lending process, and it might help keep politicians’ hands off the money, but “it seems like something that will slow down something that is inherently slow anyway,” says the Professor..
He's got a point, but still, even though the analysis is essentially correct, the solution is anaemic.. It's going to take much more than getting workers back in the old jobs.. It's going to take the creation of an entirely new industry, and the education of those collecting benefits to work in this 'new industry'..
But the U.S. isn’t fighting a recession.. it’s fighting a protracted period of weak economic growth that will condemn millions of people to welfare.. An infrastructure program works in the present context because the goal is to reduce long-term unemployment.. The U.S. needs to upgrade its roads, bridges and schools, so why not do so now?
“This is a real problem widely acknowledged to exist,” Prof. Diamond said of the U.S.’s crumbling infrastructure. “In so far as we do now something that we are going to do in a few years because the American economy needs infrastructure upgrading, we’re not hurting the long-run debt position..
So essentially, what we're looking at is a new 'New Deal'.. and that's not new at all..
And to bring today's look to an end..
President Obama has discovered how serious the recession is..
That's what he told an audience in Chicago last week.. To be fair, he was referring to revised data from the Commerce Department showing that the falloff in GDP was larger than originally reported..
But a little ridicule is appropriate..
He and we knew all along how many people were out of work.. the employment numbers told us the size of the hole and the desperate need for government action..
This sort of ridiculous comment, and President Obama's weak response to the recession over the first two and a half years of his presidency, explains the tidal wave of scepticism facing his widely hyped upcoming speech on jobs after the Labor Day weekend..
The list of remedies leaked ahead of time does little to inspire hope..
We'll discuss these points after Barack's speech..
Flooding across parts of the East Coast is still a major issue after Hurricane Irene as the death toll rises to 40 across 11 states.. Thousands still find themselves stranded and without electricity for days to come..
The death toll, which extended from North Carolina to Vermont, rose sharply as bodies were pulled from floodwaters and people were electrocuted by downed power lines..
Eighteen of the 40 Irene-related deaths were in the New York tristate area and New England.. 7 in New Jersey, 6 in New York, 2 in Connecticut and 3 in Vermont..
In Vermont, where a number of towns remained cut off by flood-damaged roads and bridges, National Guard helicopters on Tuesday were delivering food and water..
About a dozen towns in the southern part of the state were rendered inaccessible by road after the torrential rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Irene..
Deputy state Transportation Secretary Sue Minter said state crews hope to re-establish ground contact with all isolated communities some time today..
Libya's interim leader gave forces loyal to deposed ruler Muammar Gaddafi a four-day deadline today to surrender towns they still control, or face a bloody end to a war that the new leadership said has so far killed 50,000 people..
As the hunt for Gaddafi himself goes on, Libyan officials accused Algeria of an act of aggression for giving refuge to his fleeing wife and three of his children, as well as, it turned out, to a new grand-daughter, born this morning..
Algeria's Foreign Ministry said Gaddafi's wife Safia, and his sons Hannibal and Mohammed had entered Algeria yesterday, along with their children..
But what the rebels want to bring a definitive end to this, is Mohammar himself.. and again, until he's found, the struggle will continue..
Anti-Gaddafi forces have converged on Sirte from east and west, but have stopped short of an all-out assault in hopes of arranging a negotiated surrender of Gaddafi's birth-place..
Mustafa Abdel Jalil, head of Libya's interim council, told a news conference.."By Saturday, if there are no peaceful indications for implementing this, we will decide this matter militarily. We do not wish to do so but we cannot wait longer.."
Meanwhile, in the States.. Consumers' confidence in August dropped almost 15 points to the lowest level since April 2009 as worries about the economy fueled the wildest stock market swings since the financial meltdown in 2008..
At a time when Americans are increasingly worried about a weak job market, higher costs for food and clothing and recent stock market turmoil, the falling confidence numbers raise new concerns about their willingness to spend and jump start the economy.. That's particularly important since consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. economic activity..
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 44.5, down from a revised 59.2 in July.. The number was the lowest level since April 2009 when the reading was 40.8.. It also is far below the 53.3 that analysts had expected..
A reading above 90 indicates the economy is on solid footing.. above 100 signals strong growth..
Today's figures do not bode well.. Besides debt talks and market fluctuations, Americans are still plagued by old economic worries.. The nation's unemployment rate is stuck at 9%.. Home values remain weak.. And shoppers are facing rising costs for everything from food to clothing as retailers try to offset their higher costs for labor and materials..
And, closer to home.. There has rarely been a gloomier bunch of central bankers and other top-level finance officials than the ones who gathered at Jackson Hole last week for their annual August gabfest.. It’s not as if most of them are a load of laughs at the best of times, but as part of their job, they can usually be counted on to find some ray of sunshine on even the darkest days..
Now, most of them acknowledge.. at least privately.. that they have pretty much run out of options if the sputtering global economy slides back into reverse and the financial system starts to come unglued again..
Then we had newly minted IMF Chief Christine Lagarde spelling out the problem for anyone willing to listen.. essentially warning that the European banks can’t be held together with Crazy Glue and paper clips much longer and that if they aren’t fixed soon, we’re heading for another whopper of a financial and economic crisis.. Freed of her government shackles, the former French finance minister pulled no punches in her first major speech to the August audience.. Lagarde declared flatly that European banks “need urgent recapitalization. They must be strong enough to withstand the risks of sovereigns and weak growth. This is key to cutting the chains of contagion. If it is not addressed, we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, or even a debilitating liquidity crisis.”
Now just where this recapitalization is going to come from, is anyone's guess..
Her proposal amounts to basically this.. “mandatory substantial recapitalization.. seeking private resources first, but using public funds if necessary.” and that means adopting the much-criticized but largely effective U.S. policy that forced major banks to accept capital infusions from Washington whether they wanted the money or not.. Lagarde suggested the European Financial Stability Fund or some other form of European-wide financing could be used to pump money directly into the banks and hence ease pressure on vulnerable governments facing bond market assaults..
The response, predictably, has been howls of outrage in European political and banking circles. A Reuters headline summed up the attitude: “Europe snubs IMF call to force-feed bank capital.”..
European policy-makers and bankers insist they have done more than enough to cushion the banks from major blows. They said her remarks only served to undermine confidence in the international financial system..
That begs the question.. what confidence..?
Back to the international picture for a moment..
He should be a member of the Federal Reserve Board.. Peter Diamond, the MIT professor who shared the Nobel Prize in economics last year for his work on labour markets, failed to convince some stubborn Republicans that he was qualified to work at the central bank..
Alabama’s Richard Shelby, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, was adamant that Prof. Diamond was ill-suited for the Fed because he lacked a background in monetary policy. Few thought Mr. Shelby’s refusal to clear Prof. Diamond’s nomination was anything more than crass partisan obstructionism. The Fed, after all, has a legislative mandate to maintain maximum employment..
Forget the debt-ceiling debate.. the failure of the President to put a Nobel laureate at the central bank was the moment when it became clear something was seriously wrong in Washington. But if there’s a silver lining to this episode, it’s that Prof. Diamond is free to air his views on economic policy at an important time..
Here's a rough sketch of the package Diamond would have put in place..
It would recapitalize smaller banks and it would allow bankruptcy judges to rewrite mortgages.. The former are the primary lenders to entrepreneurs, who create jobs faster than established companies; the later would create an incentive for banks to avoid foreclosures..
Prof. Diamond’s centrepiece would be a “big” infrastructure program.. But not for the reasons you are thinking.. “This is not Keynes, let’s dig holes.”.. Diamond dislikes infrastructure spending as a stimulus in a normal recession because it takes too long to get the money in the system..that's the the “shovel-ready” problem..
The persistent problem, even with this plan, remains.. And that would be the raising of new capital.. With this being a global problem, traditional markets will shrink.. “Absent another insanity over the debt limit, we’ve got a decade before anyone is going to worry about the U.S.’s ability to pay for these things,” Diamond said. “What I worry about is we have an elephant sized problem and I hope we don’t just get flea-sized proposals.”..
In the flea-sized camp is the current Obama administration proposal to create an infrastructure bank.. “The government should just up and do it,” Diamond said, explaining that creating a new entity that would use tax money to leverage private funds would only waste time.. A bank might bring private-sector expertise into the lending process, and it might help keep politicians’ hands off the money, but “it seems like something that will slow down something that is inherently slow anyway,” says the Professor..
He's got a point, but still, even though the analysis is essentially correct, the solution is anaemic.. It's going to take much more than getting workers back in the old jobs.. It's going to take the creation of an entirely new industry, and the education of those collecting benefits to work in this 'new industry'..
But the U.S. isn’t fighting a recession.. it’s fighting a protracted period of weak economic growth that will condemn millions of people to welfare.. An infrastructure program works in the present context because the goal is to reduce long-term unemployment.. The U.S. needs to upgrade its roads, bridges and schools, so why not do so now?
“This is a real problem widely acknowledged to exist,” Prof. Diamond said of the U.S.’s crumbling infrastructure. “In so far as we do now something that we are going to do in a few years because the American economy needs infrastructure upgrading, we’re not hurting the long-run debt position..
So essentially, what we're looking at is a new 'New Deal'.. and that's not new at all..
And to bring today's look to an end..
President Obama has discovered how serious the recession is..
That's what he told an audience in Chicago last week.. To be fair, he was referring to revised data from the Commerce Department showing that the falloff in GDP was larger than originally reported..
But a little ridicule is appropriate..
He and we knew all along how many people were out of work.. the employment numbers told us the size of the hole and the desperate need for government action..
This sort of ridiculous comment, and President Obama's weak response to the recession over the first two and a half years of his presidency, explains the tidal wave of scepticism facing his widely hyped upcoming speech on jobs after the Labor Day weekend..
The list of remedies leaked ahead of time does little to inspire hope..
We'll discuss these points after Barack's speech..
Flooding across parts of the East Coast is still a major issue after Hurricane Irene as the death toll rises to 40 across 11 states.. Thousands still find themselves stranded and without electricity for days to come..
The death toll, which extended from North Carolina to Vermont, rose sharply as bodies were pulled from floodwaters and people were electrocuted by downed power lines..
Eighteen of the 40 Irene-related deaths were in the New York tristate area and New England.. 7 in New Jersey, 6 in New York, 2 in Connecticut and 3 in Vermont..
In Vermont, where a number of towns remained cut off by flood-damaged roads and bridges, National Guard helicopters on Tuesday were delivering food and water..
About a dozen towns in the southern part of the state were rendered inaccessible by road after the torrential rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Irene..
Deputy state Transportation Secretary Sue Minter said state crews hope to re-establish ground contact with all isolated communities some time today..
Monday, August 29, 2011
Once again.. a dinner conversation brought about several views on a number of topics.. with again, at the end, the obvious simply being supported by our numerous points of view..
Worried about the ecology..? The ice caps may well melt away to nothing.. it's happened before.. and if the extreme weather we've seen of late is a concern, it is to be expected as this earth goes about the process of being itself.. If we destroy our environment, it can only be said that this particular strain in the evolutionary process is by far the most willfully self-destructive.. man may die, but whatever we do.. even if it came to nuclear situations.. the earth will survive..
Worried about the state of affairs in the Middle East.. These conflicts have been going on for millennia.. Inter-tribal conflicts were replaced with Imperialistic conflicts which were replaced by economic conflict which has been replaced with sociological conflict.. And the outcome will be, as it always has been, a diplomatic nightmare.. Perhaps in ten years time, we'll be planning to overthrow the next 'elected' governments..
Worried about the conditions some live in, in our own Western societies..? The result in the long run will be either a collapse of the social order, seeded in the late 1940's by the 'beat generation' and finally coming to a climax over 60 years later.. Or, to take the extreme optimist and his argument that mankind could come to it's senses, support those who cannot contribute..maintain those who won't.. and allow the rest to get on with their Game.. It's always been a case of cream rising to the top.. Yet it can be said that feces float as well.. Never has Wilde been so apt.."While we are all of us in the gutter, there are some who look at the stars.."
Concerned about the economy..? It's worldwide, this house of cards.. There is not a single country that isn't hip deep in effluvia and realistically, there is no way out..It will take a societal change on a scale unprecedented, to turn us around..It's a case of getting in the Game, if for no other reason than simple self-preservation.. and most either haven't the inclination.. or the imagination to actually see what these massive numbers mean.. The world of economics with all it's twists and turns is a guessing game even for those trained..the import of say, Greece defaulting on it's next series of interest payments, or of Italy or Spain needing a bailout from the IMF.. This is foreign territory for most.. And the only duty of those in the Game is, to keep those who are not, happy..
Concerned about the ability of those we've elected.. There's no point in spending much time discussing this.. In all popularity polls, the one with the most pleasant smile is the one who'll win.. We cast our vote as a matter of duty, knowing full-well that whoever wins, will face the same problems.. And of course, the best smile doesn't always mean the most capable..
One memory will remain clear for quite a while about this dinner..
We laughed, a lot..
We'll start on this new week, tomorrow..
Worried about the ecology..? The ice caps may well melt away to nothing.. it's happened before.. and if the extreme weather we've seen of late is a concern, it is to be expected as this earth goes about the process of being itself.. If we destroy our environment, it can only be said that this particular strain in the evolutionary process is by far the most willfully self-destructive.. man may die, but whatever we do.. even if it came to nuclear situations.. the earth will survive..
Worried about the state of affairs in the Middle East.. These conflicts have been going on for millennia.. Inter-tribal conflicts were replaced with Imperialistic conflicts which were replaced by economic conflict which has been replaced with sociological conflict.. And the outcome will be, as it always has been, a diplomatic nightmare.. Perhaps in ten years time, we'll be planning to overthrow the next 'elected' governments..
Worried about the conditions some live in, in our own Western societies..? The result in the long run will be either a collapse of the social order, seeded in the late 1940's by the 'beat generation' and finally coming to a climax over 60 years later.. Or, to take the extreme optimist and his argument that mankind could come to it's senses, support those who cannot contribute..maintain those who won't.. and allow the rest to get on with their Game.. It's always been a case of cream rising to the top.. Yet it can be said that feces float as well.. Never has Wilde been so apt.."While we are all of us in the gutter, there are some who look at the stars.."
Concerned about the economy..? It's worldwide, this house of cards.. There is not a single country that isn't hip deep in effluvia and realistically, there is no way out..It will take a societal change on a scale unprecedented, to turn us around..It's a case of getting in the Game, if for no other reason than simple self-preservation.. and most either haven't the inclination.. or the imagination to actually see what these massive numbers mean.. The world of economics with all it's twists and turns is a guessing game even for those trained..the import of say, Greece defaulting on it's next series of interest payments, or of Italy or Spain needing a bailout from the IMF.. This is foreign territory for most.. And the only duty of those in the Game is, to keep those who are not, happy..
Concerned about the ability of those we've elected.. There's no point in spending much time discussing this.. In all popularity polls, the one with the most pleasant smile is the one who'll win.. We cast our vote as a matter of duty, knowing full-well that whoever wins, will face the same problems.. And of course, the best smile doesn't always mean the most capable..
One memory will remain clear for quite a while about this dinner..
We laughed, a lot..
We'll start on this new week, tomorrow..
Friday, August 26, 2011
An update on the day..
A gruesome discovery in a Triploli hospital.. more than 200 decomposing bodies have been found abandoned at a hospital in a district of the Libyan capital that has seen fierce fighting..
Reports tell a hideous story.. corpses of men, women and children on beds and in the corridors of Abu Salim's hospital..
Doctors and nurses fled after clashes erupted nearby between rebel forces and those loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi..
Some residents accused the regime of murdering those at the hospital, but it is not yet clear how exactly they died..
Meanwhile, rebel forces faced stiff resistance as they advanced on Sirte, Col Gaddafi's birthplace and the town regarded as his last stronghold..
And so the fight continues.. with the rebels consolidating their hold on Ras Lanuf and it's oil distribution center..
The long awaited word from the Chairman of the Fed.. has offered nothing to markets which have been bouncing around the zero growth level for a couple of weeks..
Ben offered no new stimulus for the American economy today, disappointing analysts and economists who had been hoping for measures to counter a slowing in growth.. what they'd been looking for was another round of 'quantitative easing'.. but that was not to be..
In a speech during the bank's annual meeting.. Bernanke did hint that Congress may need to act to stimulate hiring and growth..
The Fed Chairman said record low interest rates will promote growth over time but that the weak economy requires further help in the short run..
His speech followed the release of a government report that the economy grew at an annual rate of just one per cent this spring and 0.7 per cent for the first six months of the year..
The report predicted only slightly healthier expansion in the second half..
Most U.S. stocks fell sharply after the speech but recovered from their deepest lows.. At mid-morning the Dow was down 1%, the S&P 500 was 0.7% lower and the Nasdaq was 0.3% higher..
Bernanke's speech comes at a critical moment for the economy..
Consumer spending has slowed.. home prices are depressed.. workers' pay is barely rising.. household debt loads remain high..
All that, compounded by Europe's debt crisis, has spooked the stock markets and unnerved consumers.. Congress is focused on shrinking deficits and seems unlikely to back any new spending to try to energize the economy..
Problems abound in Japan as well.. Prime Minister Naoto Kan announced today.. that he was resigning after almost 15 months in office, amid plunging approval ratings over his government's handling of the tsunami disaster and nuclear crisis..
In a nationally televised speech, Kan said he was stepping down as chief of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, effectively ending his tenure as leader of the country. The decision was widely expected because in June, Kan had promised to quit once lawmakers passed three key pieces of legislation. The final two bills cleared the parliament earlier today..
This leaves Japan in vote mode again..The Democrats will vote Monday for a new leader, who will almost certainly become Japan's next PM..the 7th since 2006..
And here.. our Office for National Statistics has announced the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance also rose, by 37,100 in July to 1.56 million, its biggest increase since May 2009..
The claimant count has now risen for five months in a row to its highest level since February 2010..
The increase in unemployment between April and June came as a surprise to some economists, as most had predicted these figures would show a slight fall in the number of people out of work..
figures also showed that between April and June.. The youth unemployment rate rose to 20.2%, up from 20% in the quarter to March.. there were 949,000 16 to 24-year-olds without work, a rise of 15,000.. the number of unemployed men increased by 18,000 to 1.45 million.. the level of unemployed women rose by 21,000 to 1.05 million, the highest figure since May 1988.. The number of employees working part-time because they could not find a full-time job increased by 83,000 to 1.26 million - the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.. the unemployment rate remained the highest in the north-east of England, at 10%.. the south-east of England still had the lowest rate of unemployment, with a rate of 5.8%.. the unemployment rate in Scotland was unchanged at 7.7%, in Wales it jumped to 8.4%, and in Northern Ireland it crept up to 7.3%.. average weekly earnings, including bonuses, were 2.6% higher than a year ago.. But inflation more than wipes that gain out..
And on the weatherwatch..
Hurricane Irene was lumbering toward North Carolina this morning, heading for a destructive march up the East Coast in an unusually broad path that could affect 55 million people.. Hurricane watches were posted for North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and New England, putting residents on notice to prepare for the worst and in some cases begin evacuations..
“The storm is moving a little bit faster than we thought,” said Josh Weiss of the National Weather Service at a briefing for local emergency management workers and other government officials in the southeastern part of North Carolina.. where rain was starting to pummel the coast.. Tropical storm conditions are expected by early afternoon..local time..
And as the day has progressed.. Barack has warned that Hurricane Irene, currently looming off the east coast of the US, could be a "historic" storm..
Seven states from North Carolina to Connecticut have declared emergencies ahead of Irene's arrival.. and mandatory evacuations have been ordered in parts of four states..
The storm has weakened slightly to Category 2, with winds up to 100mph, and this is the strength at which it is expected to make landfall..
Irene, which has already caused havoc in the Caribbean, is expected to hit the coast of North Carolina on Saturday before barrelling north.. to Washington and New York City a day later..
One has to wonder.. if those who tote up the cost of the riots in British cities take the maintenance of a man in custody into account..
In this case.. we're talking about 86,821 people locked up in jails, young offender institutions and immigration removal centres..
Granted.. only 13 hundred of them are serving time because of riot related charges.. but this increase, at this time of the year, is stretching the prison service to the point the seams are about ready to burst..
Mind you.. Prisons Minister Crispin Blunt said there will be no 'long-term effect' on inmate numbers..
Blunt said the disturbances earlier this month were a "one-off" event and the justice system could cope in the short-term..
And the government expects prison numbers to fall to about 83,000 in 2012..
Now one might assume this figure takes into account all those who will be released by the end of this year.. as well as all those who have yet to be jailed.. and there were 797 suspects on remand, almost two-thirds of all those to have so far come before the courts.. they may or may not face prison terms, but are taking up space the now..
The speed with which the prison population is rising following the riots appears to have slowed, with an increase of 167 this week compared with 723 last week..
This, of course, would reflect an easing of temperament in the Courts, as the immediacy of the riots slips away..
The same is reflected in the public attitude.. while there are those who still suffer from the effects of the insanity which swept some of our major towns.. the majority have simply filed it away as something to be spoken of later.. In coming years, it will be asked many a time.. '..you remember the riots of 2011..?'
As a final note.. there's a disturbing proposal been put forward..
Industrialists.. wealthy businessmen/women.. philanthropists.. those who rank high among the 'haves' in our society.. are being asked to buy 'Social Impact Bonds'..
The money raised from this sale will be spent on helping the worst of the poor and underprivilaged.. in providing better living conditions and educational opportunities for those at the very bottom of the ladder..
The Government has put the annual bill for assisting the UK's most deprived families at more than £4billion a year, representing an average of nearly £100,000 per family..
Now the hope is, that these 'Bonds' will yield a profit for the investor..
Civil Society Minister Nick Hurd said it would focus on delivering concrete, measurable outcomes.. "We want to restore a stronger sense of responsibility across our society and to give people working on the front line the power and resource they need to do their jobs properly.. Social Impact Bonds could be one of many Big Society innovations that will build the new partnerships between the state, communities, businesses and charities and focus resources where they are needed."
An initial evaluation of the scheme, published in May, found there was demand from the voluntary sector for the idea and it had helped to generate new sources of funding.. But it also warned that the contractual relationships underpinning the scheme were "complex".. to say the least.. "If they achieve a reduction of more than 7.5% in the rate of reoffending by these prisoners for a period of six to eight years, then the government pays the capital back," he said..
"Below that, the capital is lost, and above that the capital gets a yield of 2.5% to 13%."..
It's schemes the likes of this, that have Ayn Rand turning in her grave..
A gruesome discovery in a Triploli hospital.. more than 200 decomposing bodies have been found abandoned at a hospital in a district of the Libyan capital that has seen fierce fighting..
Reports tell a hideous story.. corpses of men, women and children on beds and in the corridors of Abu Salim's hospital..
Doctors and nurses fled after clashes erupted nearby between rebel forces and those loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi..
Some residents accused the regime of murdering those at the hospital, but it is not yet clear how exactly they died..
Meanwhile, rebel forces faced stiff resistance as they advanced on Sirte, Col Gaddafi's birthplace and the town regarded as his last stronghold..
And so the fight continues.. with the rebels consolidating their hold on Ras Lanuf and it's oil distribution center..
The long awaited word from the Chairman of the Fed.. has offered nothing to markets which have been bouncing around the zero growth level for a couple of weeks..
Ben offered no new stimulus for the American economy today, disappointing analysts and economists who had been hoping for measures to counter a slowing in growth.. what they'd been looking for was another round of 'quantitative easing'.. but that was not to be..
In a speech during the bank's annual meeting.. Bernanke did hint that Congress may need to act to stimulate hiring and growth..
The Fed Chairman said record low interest rates will promote growth over time but that the weak economy requires further help in the short run..
His speech followed the release of a government report that the economy grew at an annual rate of just one per cent this spring and 0.7 per cent for the first six months of the year..
The report predicted only slightly healthier expansion in the second half..
Most U.S. stocks fell sharply after the speech but recovered from their deepest lows.. At mid-morning the Dow was down 1%, the S&P 500 was 0.7% lower and the Nasdaq was 0.3% higher..
Bernanke's speech comes at a critical moment for the economy..
Consumer spending has slowed.. home prices are depressed.. workers' pay is barely rising.. household debt loads remain high..
All that, compounded by Europe's debt crisis, has spooked the stock markets and unnerved consumers.. Congress is focused on shrinking deficits and seems unlikely to back any new spending to try to energize the economy..
Problems abound in Japan as well.. Prime Minister Naoto Kan announced today.. that he was resigning after almost 15 months in office, amid plunging approval ratings over his government's handling of the tsunami disaster and nuclear crisis..
In a nationally televised speech, Kan said he was stepping down as chief of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, effectively ending his tenure as leader of the country. The decision was widely expected because in June, Kan had promised to quit once lawmakers passed three key pieces of legislation. The final two bills cleared the parliament earlier today..
This leaves Japan in vote mode again..The Democrats will vote Monday for a new leader, who will almost certainly become Japan's next PM..the 7th since 2006..
And here.. our Office for National Statistics has announced the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance also rose, by 37,100 in July to 1.56 million, its biggest increase since May 2009..
The claimant count has now risen for five months in a row to its highest level since February 2010..
The increase in unemployment between April and June came as a surprise to some economists, as most had predicted these figures would show a slight fall in the number of people out of work..
figures also showed that between April and June.. The youth unemployment rate rose to 20.2%, up from 20% in the quarter to March.. there were 949,000 16 to 24-year-olds without work, a rise of 15,000.. the number of unemployed men increased by 18,000 to 1.45 million.. the level of unemployed women rose by 21,000 to 1.05 million, the highest figure since May 1988.. The number of employees working part-time because they could not find a full-time job increased by 83,000 to 1.26 million - the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.. the unemployment rate remained the highest in the north-east of England, at 10%.. the south-east of England still had the lowest rate of unemployment, with a rate of 5.8%.. the unemployment rate in Scotland was unchanged at 7.7%, in Wales it jumped to 8.4%, and in Northern Ireland it crept up to 7.3%.. average weekly earnings, including bonuses, were 2.6% higher than a year ago.. But inflation more than wipes that gain out..
And on the weatherwatch..
Hurricane Irene was lumbering toward North Carolina this morning, heading for a destructive march up the East Coast in an unusually broad path that could affect 55 million people.. Hurricane watches were posted for North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and New England, putting residents on notice to prepare for the worst and in some cases begin evacuations..
“The storm is moving a little bit faster than we thought,” said Josh Weiss of the National Weather Service at a briefing for local emergency management workers and other government officials in the southeastern part of North Carolina.. where rain was starting to pummel the coast.. Tropical storm conditions are expected by early afternoon..local time..
And as the day has progressed.. Barack has warned that Hurricane Irene, currently looming off the east coast of the US, could be a "historic" storm..
Seven states from North Carolina to Connecticut have declared emergencies ahead of Irene's arrival.. and mandatory evacuations have been ordered in parts of four states..
The storm has weakened slightly to Category 2, with winds up to 100mph, and this is the strength at which it is expected to make landfall..
Irene, which has already caused havoc in the Caribbean, is expected to hit the coast of North Carolina on Saturday before barrelling north.. to Washington and New York City a day later..
One has to wonder.. if those who tote up the cost of the riots in British cities take the maintenance of a man in custody into account..
In this case.. we're talking about 86,821 people locked up in jails, young offender institutions and immigration removal centres..
Granted.. only 13 hundred of them are serving time because of riot related charges.. but this increase, at this time of the year, is stretching the prison service to the point the seams are about ready to burst..
Mind you.. Prisons Minister Crispin Blunt said there will be no 'long-term effect' on inmate numbers..
Blunt said the disturbances earlier this month were a "one-off" event and the justice system could cope in the short-term..
And the government expects prison numbers to fall to about 83,000 in 2012..
Now one might assume this figure takes into account all those who will be released by the end of this year.. as well as all those who have yet to be jailed.. and there were 797 suspects on remand, almost two-thirds of all those to have so far come before the courts.. they may or may not face prison terms, but are taking up space the now..
The speed with which the prison population is rising following the riots appears to have slowed, with an increase of 167 this week compared with 723 last week..
This, of course, would reflect an easing of temperament in the Courts, as the immediacy of the riots slips away..
The same is reflected in the public attitude.. while there are those who still suffer from the effects of the insanity which swept some of our major towns.. the majority have simply filed it away as something to be spoken of later.. In coming years, it will be asked many a time.. '..you remember the riots of 2011..?'
As a final note.. there's a disturbing proposal been put forward..
Industrialists.. wealthy businessmen/women.. philanthropists.. those who rank high among the 'haves' in our society.. are being asked to buy 'Social Impact Bonds'..
The money raised from this sale will be spent on helping the worst of the poor and underprivilaged.. in providing better living conditions and educational opportunities for those at the very bottom of the ladder..
The Government has put the annual bill for assisting the UK's most deprived families at more than £4billion a year, representing an average of nearly £100,000 per family..
Now the hope is, that these 'Bonds' will yield a profit for the investor..
Civil Society Minister Nick Hurd said it would focus on delivering concrete, measurable outcomes.. "We want to restore a stronger sense of responsibility across our society and to give people working on the front line the power and resource they need to do their jobs properly.. Social Impact Bonds could be one of many Big Society innovations that will build the new partnerships between the state, communities, businesses and charities and focus resources where they are needed."
An initial evaluation of the scheme, published in May, found there was demand from the voluntary sector for the idea and it had helped to generate new sources of funding.. But it also warned that the contractual relationships underpinning the scheme were "complex".. to say the least.. "If they achieve a reduction of more than 7.5% in the rate of reoffending by these prisoners for a period of six to eight years, then the government pays the capital back," he said..
"Below that, the capital is lost, and above that the capital gets a yield of 2.5% to 13%."..
It's schemes the likes of this, that have Ayn Rand turning in her grave..
Thursday, August 25, 2011
And as a note to end this day..
Foreign Secretary William Hague has said it may take time to negotiate a United Nations resolution to release frozen Libyan assets..
Hague said British, French and US diplomats were trying to get agreement from Russia and China.. both of whom hold a UN Security Council veto.. and Russia and China both refused to endorse the UN resolution allowing NATO's military intervention in Libya..
Hague said it was "important for the world to come together".. a typical British understatement.. For it's the reaction of the West to this coup in Libya that will set the tone, in the Arab mind, for what will soon be needed in Syria.. this is a chance to ease inbred distrust..
The UK government's National Security Council met for the fourth consecutive day this afternoon.. Billions of pounds of Libyan assets - including £12bn in London alone.. have been frozen in recent months to prevent them being used by the Gaddafi regime..
The US, UK and France want to unfreeze them to provide funds for the NTC and for humanitarian efforts..
Meanwhile, in Libya, rebels are continuing to fight running battles with pro-Gaddafi forces in Tripoli, while Colonel Gaddafi himself remains on the lam..
To add an afternoon update.. Gaddafi has addressed his followers on State television and radio, calling on this 'invasion' to be washed from the streets of Tripoli with the blood of women and children..
The rebels are now concentrating on the Colonels hometown of Sirte.. where many who still support the old regime continue the fight..
There are some calls now for UN troops to take over.. to patrol the roads and open a corridor through Tripoli.. And there will be meetings this weekend by Ministers from countries which have frozen Gaddafi accounts.. meetings designed to release some of those funds to the Revolutionary Council..
While Muhammar continues to elude those searching for him.. The head of the National Transitional Council.. Mustafa Abdel Jalil.. has upped the stakes..
They're offering any of those still close to Gaddafi an offer of amnesty, and a cash reward of a million Pounds..
This is a 'dead or alive' deal..
Rebel spokesman Guma el-Gamaty reports that those around Col Gaddafi were "heavily implicated with him in crimes against humanity and crimes against the Libyan people.. Now there is a huge psychological incentive for them.. If they don't want to go down with him and save their skin, they will be immune from prosecution if they hand him over.. or kill him..".
There are still reports of gunfire from and into the last remaining faithful in the Compound..
But there are no crowds celebrating.. sniper fire is keeping the rebels at bay, for the moment..
For the time being.. the focus will remain on the search for Gaddafi.. But soon, the National Transitional Council will need to pay serious attention to getting the country's finances back in order..
There are some tangible assets frozen in the US.. Britain.. France.. Germany and South Africa.. which could total close to £115 billion.. those assets, along with loans and outright gifts from Western governments.. should keep the government working.. civil servants paid.. money available to rebuild small businesses.. repair the damage done by NATO bombs and government tanks and rockets..
And while there are those warning of a 'humanitarian crisis' in the offing.. if the Council can keep order among tribal factions and ensure there's a plan to distribute foreign imports.. the situation need not escalate into a full-blown disaster..
There are reports of a shortage of medical supplies.. although that's understandable considering the nature of this coup.. Much of Tripoli is without electricity and running water.. and rumours of a poisoned water supply aren't helping matters..
But again.. we'll now see Western money flowing into Libya.. The transition.. with NATO help.. should flow freely..
All going well.. of course..
The Council must ensure a return to normalcy, as quickly as possible.. Get oil exports up and running again.. and sustainable markets encouraged to come into the country to fulfill existing contracts..
We'll have more as the day progresses..
A flash slide in Germany's stock market dragged down indexes across the world.. erasing earlier gains and shaking the confidence of investors who were cheering a $5 billion investment by Warren Buffet in Bank of America.. Buffet announced his support for BofA early this afternoon..
Germany's main index, the DAX, fell about 250 points in a matter of minutes to trade down more than 4 percent on the day, before recovering somewhat.. By mid afternoon in Europe it was down 2.4 percent..
Analysts and traders could not immediately identify a reason for the slump, but its impact was immediate on financial markets around the world..
But perhaps it is simple to understand.. Investors are waiting for tomorrows meeting in Wyoming.. and as mentioned in previous posts.. there are those who will be in this market for simple short-term gain.. and are now taking what profit they can..
At the close.. Britain's FTSE 100 was pulled 1.2% lower to 5,143.48.. while France's CAC-40 was down 0.5 percent to 3,124..
Something to keep an eye on..
Hurricane Irene has been upped to a Category 3 hurricane, as it swept across the Bahamas.. on a course that will see the US Eastern Seaboard affected by tomorrow..
Irene's packing winds of 120mph.. and forecasters say it's going to get worse..
The Outer Banks islands off North Carolina are being evacuated and people are stocking up on supplies in coastal areas of the US state..
The storm has brought flooding and power cuts across the Caribbean..
The National Hurricane Center said it expected Irene to grow into a Category 4 storm today.. with winds of 135 mph..
This afternoon.. Thousands were fleeing an exposed strip of coastal villages and beaches off North Carolina as Irene approaches.. Irene could hit North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon with winds around 115 mph.. It's predicted to work it's way up the East Coast, dumping rain from Virginia to New York City before a much-weakened form reaches land in Connecticut..
There was a time this record dealt with issues reflected through discussions held in chatrooms.. A time there was much less reporting of world affairs.. and much more observation.. speculation perhaps.. on the human condition..
When this began, it was meant primarily to be a record of the world as seen through the eyes of one man who'd spent his life reporting on, and discussing the news.. a record of world affairs which both affect us directly, or will in the future..
But whereas there used to be the old regulars around the bar at the local pub.. they seem to have melted away either through a lack of disposable income.. or normal attrition..
Whereas there was coherent thought to be found in the chatrooms.. that medium these days has deteriorated to the level of mere social sites, where 'friends' exchange a never ending stream of 'hellos' and 'goodbyes'.. and little of substance being written.. It's always a shame to lose a source.. but what chatrooms there are remaining, are inconsequential..
This has become a condensed news report.. but it is a reflection of at least one man's view on the important issues of the day.. and what's reported in these posts is meant to be pieces of the puzzle in the ongoing Game..
When the world allows us time to return to introspection.. we will be happy to get back to it..
In the meantime.. this will remain a portable analysis.. History as it happens, so to speak..
A brief mention on a couple of new discoveries..
A newly discovered alien planet that formed from a dead star is a real diamond in the rough.. no pun intended..
A a new study suggests..the super-high pressure of the planet, which orbits a rapidly pulsing neutron star, has likely caused the carbon within it to crystallize into an actual diamond..The composition of the planet, which is about five times the size of Earth, is not its only outstanding feature..
The planet's parent star is a special kind of flashing star known as a millisecond pulsar, a rapidly rotating neutron star formed from a supernova. The entire system, which is only the second of its kind ever discovered, is located about 4,000 light-years from Earth in the constellation of Serpens.. or The Snake..
And here on earth.. Brazilian scientists have discovered an underground river some 4,000 meters, which flows from west to east like the country's famous waterway..
A statement this week from Brazil's National Observatory named the underground river Hamza and said it represents one of two different draining systems for the large rainforest region..
A team of scientists led by Elizabeth Pimentel came to the conclusion from studying 241 wells drilled by the state oil giant Petrobras in the Amazon region..
Even though the two rivers cover a similar path they have differences.. The underground river flows at a far slower pace and empties into the ocean deep underground..
The report from Pimentel writes "It is likely that this river is responsible for the low level of salinity in the waters around the mouth of the Amazon.."
Foreign Secretary William Hague has said it may take time to negotiate a United Nations resolution to release frozen Libyan assets..
Hague said British, French and US diplomats were trying to get agreement from Russia and China.. both of whom hold a UN Security Council veto.. and Russia and China both refused to endorse the UN resolution allowing NATO's military intervention in Libya..
Hague said it was "important for the world to come together".. a typical British understatement.. For it's the reaction of the West to this coup in Libya that will set the tone, in the Arab mind, for what will soon be needed in Syria.. this is a chance to ease inbred distrust..
The UK government's National Security Council met for the fourth consecutive day this afternoon.. Billions of pounds of Libyan assets - including £12bn in London alone.. have been frozen in recent months to prevent them being used by the Gaddafi regime..
The US, UK and France want to unfreeze them to provide funds for the NTC and for humanitarian efforts..
Meanwhile, in Libya, rebels are continuing to fight running battles with pro-Gaddafi forces in Tripoli, while Colonel Gaddafi himself remains on the lam..
To add an afternoon update.. Gaddafi has addressed his followers on State television and radio, calling on this 'invasion' to be washed from the streets of Tripoli with the blood of women and children..
The rebels are now concentrating on the Colonels hometown of Sirte.. where many who still support the old regime continue the fight..
There are some calls now for UN troops to take over.. to patrol the roads and open a corridor through Tripoli.. And there will be meetings this weekend by Ministers from countries which have frozen Gaddafi accounts.. meetings designed to release some of those funds to the Revolutionary Council..
While Muhammar continues to elude those searching for him.. The head of the National Transitional Council.. Mustafa Abdel Jalil.. has upped the stakes..
They're offering any of those still close to Gaddafi an offer of amnesty, and a cash reward of a million Pounds..
This is a 'dead or alive' deal..
Rebel spokesman Guma el-Gamaty reports that those around Col Gaddafi were "heavily implicated with him in crimes against humanity and crimes against the Libyan people.. Now there is a huge psychological incentive for them.. If they don't want to go down with him and save their skin, they will be immune from prosecution if they hand him over.. or kill him..".
There are still reports of gunfire from and into the last remaining faithful in the Compound..
But there are no crowds celebrating.. sniper fire is keeping the rebels at bay, for the moment..
For the time being.. the focus will remain on the search for Gaddafi.. But soon, the National Transitional Council will need to pay serious attention to getting the country's finances back in order..
There are some tangible assets frozen in the US.. Britain.. France.. Germany and South Africa.. which could total close to £115 billion.. those assets, along with loans and outright gifts from Western governments.. should keep the government working.. civil servants paid.. money available to rebuild small businesses.. repair the damage done by NATO bombs and government tanks and rockets..
And while there are those warning of a 'humanitarian crisis' in the offing.. if the Council can keep order among tribal factions and ensure there's a plan to distribute foreign imports.. the situation need not escalate into a full-blown disaster..
There are reports of a shortage of medical supplies.. although that's understandable considering the nature of this coup.. Much of Tripoli is without electricity and running water.. and rumours of a poisoned water supply aren't helping matters..
But again.. we'll now see Western money flowing into Libya.. The transition.. with NATO help.. should flow freely..
All going well.. of course..
The Council must ensure a return to normalcy, as quickly as possible.. Get oil exports up and running again.. and sustainable markets encouraged to come into the country to fulfill existing contracts..
We'll have more as the day progresses..
A flash slide in Germany's stock market dragged down indexes across the world.. erasing earlier gains and shaking the confidence of investors who were cheering a $5 billion investment by Warren Buffet in Bank of America.. Buffet announced his support for BofA early this afternoon..
Germany's main index, the DAX, fell about 250 points in a matter of minutes to trade down more than 4 percent on the day, before recovering somewhat.. By mid afternoon in Europe it was down 2.4 percent..
Analysts and traders could not immediately identify a reason for the slump, but its impact was immediate on financial markets around the world..
But perhaps it is simple to understand.. Investors are waiting for tomorrows meeting in Wyoming.. and as mentioned in previous posts.. there are those who will be in this market for simple short-term gain.. and are now taking what profit they can..
At the close.. Britain's FTSE 100 was pulled 1.2% lower to 5,143.48.. while France's CAC-40 was down 0.5 percent to 3,124..
Something to keep an eye on..
Hurricane Irene has been upped to a Category 3 hurricane, as it swept across the Bahamas.. on a course that will see the US Eastern Seaboard affected by tomorrow..
Irene's packing winds of 120mph.. and forecasters say it's going to get worse..
The Outer Banks islands off North Carolina are being evacuated and people are stocking up on supplies in coastal areas of the US state..
The storm has brought flooding and power cuts across the Caribbean..
The National Hurricane Center said it expected Irene to grow into a Category 4 storm today.. with winds of 135 mph..
This afternoon.. Thousands were fleeing an exposed strip of coastal villages and beaches off North Carolina as Irene approaches.. Irene could hit North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon with winds around 115 mph.. It's predicted to work it's way up the East Coast, dumping rain from Virginia to New York City before a much-weakened form reaches land in Connecticut..
There was a time this record dealt with issues reflected through discussions held in chatrooms.. A time there was much less reporting of world affairs.. and much more observation.. speculation perhaps.. on the human condition..
When this began, it was meant primarily to be a record of the world as seen through the eyes of one man who'd spent his life reporting on, and discussing the news.. a record of world affairs which both affect us directly, or will in the future..
But whereas there used to be the old regulars around the bar at the local pub.. they seem to have melted away either through a lack of disposable income.. or normal attrition..
Whereas there was coherent thought to be found in the chatrooms.. that medium these days has deteriorated to the level of mere social sites, where 'friends' exchange a never ending stream of 'hellos' and 'goodbyes'.. and little of substance being written.. It's always a shame to lose a source.. but what chatrooms there are remaining, are inconsequential..
This has become a condensed news report.. but it is a reflection of at least one man's view on the important issues of the day.. and what's reported in these posts is meant to be pieces of the puzzle in the ongoing Game..
When the world allows us time to return to introspection.. we will be happy to get back to it..
In the meantime.. this will remain a portable analysis.. History as it happens, so to speak..
A brief mention on a couple of new discoveries..
A newly discovered alien planet that formed from a dead star is a real diamond in the rough.. no pun intended..
A a new study suggests..the super-high pressure of the planet, which orbits a rapidly pulsing neutron star, has likely caused the carbon within it to crystallize into an actual diamond..The composition of the planet, which is about five times the size of Earth, is not its only outstanding feature..
The planet's parent star is a special kind of flashing star known as a millisecond pulsar, a rapidly rotating neutron star formed from a supernova. The entire system, which is only the second of its kind ever discovered, is located about 4,000 light-years from Earth in the constellation of Serpens.. or The Snake..
And here on earth.. Brazilian scientists have discovered an underground river some 4,000 meters, which flows from west to east like the country's famous waterway..
A statement this week from Brazil's National Observatory named the underground river Hamza and said it represents one of two different draining systems for the large rainforest region..
A team of scientists led by Elizabeth Pimentel came to the conclusion from studying 241 wells drilled by the state oil giant Petrobras in the Amazon region..
Even though the two rivers cover a similar path they have differences.. The underground river flows at a far slower pace and empties into the ocean deep underground..
The report from Pimentel writes "It is likely that this river is responsible for the low level of salinity in the waters around the mouth of the Amazon.."
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
We'll start with the markets..
After weeks of uncertainty, traders seemed to seize the day..
Stock indexes powered ahead yesterday as investors saw profit to be made on some cheap stocks.. as they bet that weak economic data would support the possibility of further stimulus from the Federal Reserve.. It was at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last year that Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, signaled further stimulus in light of a similar slowdown of the American economy..
'Quantitative easing' was entered into the economic lexicon..
“The market is down so much in the last week or two,” said Brian M. Youngberg, an energy analyst at Edward Jones.. “When the risk seems to come down a bit, many investors get back in it.”..
The broader market rose more than 3% and represented the second consecutive day of gains in stocks this week.. Mind you, that has merely rearranged the value of stocks.. making up for the losses of last week.. Many analysts say investors are waiting for policy makers to lay out plans for their response to the European sovereign debt issues and the economic headwinds in the United States..
One more day of rising indexes.. we might see a dip towards Thursday as some take their profit and wait for the announcement Friday from Ben..
Early trading along the Pacific Rim reflects the tone of the markets and investors in general.. Some profit taking already in evidence.. The Hang Seng and the Nikkei are very slightly up in early trading.. while Australia and New Zealand opened to slight losses..
That trend mentioned above seems to show signs of being the tone of the day.. A few hours into trading.. Japan.. Hong Kong.. have slipped into the red..
Chalk it up to minor profit taking..
We'll follow through the trading day.. But it's doubtful we'll see anything of note until the end of the week..
And as the day came to an end.. stocks in Europe rose today, defying declines in the U.S. and Asia, as investors awaited potential new action from the Federal Reserve to kick start the world's largest economy..
In a sign of the wild movements seen on financial and commodities markets in recent weeks, the price of gold, which had surged in recent weeks as investors fled into save-haven assets, plummeted 4.4% to $1,779, more than $100 below a new record reached just days ago..
Markets are likely to continue fluctuating ahead of Friday's speech.. Investors hope Bernanke will signal a third round of massive bond-buying to boost the faltering U.S. recovery..
With the goal of significantly lowering the country's debt.. the French government has announced a 3% tax hike for those earning above 500,000 euros.. that's £440,000, or $721,000..
This tax hike follows some of France's wealthiest people calling on the government to tackle its deficit by raising taxes on the rich..
Some might say this seems to be an outcry from the turkeys for an early Christmas.. but in fact, it's a brilliant strategy to quiet some of the resentment and unrest fomenting in France.. This allows high earners to say 'we're doing what we can..'
Paris has also reduced its economic growth forecast for 2012 to 1.75% from a previous 2.25%.. Prime Minister Francois Fillon said the new tax would remain in place until France reduces its budget deficit back under the EU's intended limit of 3% of GDP.. with analysts saying that could come to pass by 2013..
"This is a rigorous policy that will allow France to remain relaxed," Fillon announced.. "Our country must stick to its [deficit] commitments. It's in the interest of all French people."..
Sixteen executives, including Europe's richest woman, the L'Oreal heiress Liliane Bettencourt, had offered in an open letter to pay a "special contribution" in a spirit of "solidarity"..
It appeared on the website of the French magazine Le Nouvel Observateur..
It was signed by some of France's most high-profile chief executives.. including Christophe de Margerie of oil firm Total.. Frederic Oudea of Bank Societe Generale.. and Air France's Jean-Cyril Spinetta..
Big names.. and a gesture some of our banking executives could well take note of..
Especially the banking sector..
After hours of pounding battle yesterday, Libya's rebels smashed through the fortified perimeter of Muammar Gaddafi's compound in western Tripoli.. the nerve center of the old regime.. sending huge plumes of black smoke over the city.. perhaps dealing a fatal blow to Gaddafi's ability to cling to power..
Footage apparently shot by rebels and aired on al-Jazeera showed armed rebels deep inside the Bab al-Aziziyah complex, rejoicing as they clambered upon the ruins of Gaddafi's old house, which was bombed by U.S. jets in 1986 and had been left by Gaddafi as a memorial to the West's evils..
But the man himself.. and his eldest son.. remain at large..
And this has led to a host of speculation on where they might be.. Some analysts are sure Mohammar's still in Libya.. others are sure he's taken what he has, and left for friendlier surroundings..
The fight for Tripoli appears to be virtually over.. but so far, there's no indication of where the Gaddafi's might be.. and until he's found.. the Revolutionary Council will not consider their achievements as a success..
As of this afternoon.. Libyan diplomats and students smashed portraits of Moammar Gadhafi, shouted "Game over!" and raised the rebel flag at their Manila embassy today as part of defections at missions worldwide underscoring the leader's rapid fall..
As rebels stormed the Libyan capital and Gadhafi's power and influence abroad crumbled, Libyan Consul Faraj Zarroug in the Philippine capital said about 85% of his country's 165 diplomatic missions now recognized the interim rebel government, the National Transitional Council.. Libyan diplomats abroad have been pledging allegiance to the rebels gradually after the rebellion erupted nearly six months ago.. but defections surged this week as rebels entered Tripoli in a stunning breakthrough..
While missions to Switzerland and Bangladesh, for example, switched early on, Libyan embassy officials in Japan and Ethiopia replaced the government flag with the rebel's tricolor the beginning of the week.. A spokesman for the rebels in Dubai, Edward Marques, said today.. the defections had turned into a "cascade," but declined to list the locations of rebel supporters.. The Libyan government could no longer be reached for comment..
A look into the internal goings on in Japan..
As Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan spends his final days in office before his party holds an internal vote Monday to choose his successor.. it's easy to be glib.. The man was in office only 14 months after all, and whoever replaces him will become the country’s seventh Prime Minister in five years..
Yup.. the 7th in 5..
But Kan’s departure deserves longer reflection than the resignation of his predecessor, the oddball Yukio Hatoyama, or any of the other four men who have held the office since Japan’s last memorable leader, Junichiro Koizumi, who stepped aside in September of 2006..
As the revolving door at the top illustrates.. the problem goes far beyond Kan and speaks to a crippling illness in Japanese politics.. a disease that compounds the already enormous threats to the country’s future..
Kan recognized the harm being done by the vacuum at the top and seemed more determined than any of his recent predecessors to hang on to the office, if only to change the perception that it no longer matters who the Prime Minister of Japan is..
But Japan’s political system, which allows reviled backroom operators to wield enormous power over their putative leaders, coupled with the natural and nuclear disasters that hit the country on March 11, ensured that he never stood a chance of succeeding..
Kan came to office last summer vowing to tackle the country’s debilitating financial mess.. Japan’s debt soared past $11-trillion earlier this year, more than double the size of the country’s GDP..
But the former finance minister’s bold proposal of increasing revenues by doubling the national sales tax to 10 per cent was defeated.. largely due to fierce opposition from within his own Democratic Party of Japan that was led by Ichiro Ozawa.. the party’s 'dark prince' of behind-the-scenes politics..
Realizing that he was doomed to be just another short-term leader unless he unified the DPJ behind him, Mr. Kan courted and won a head-to-head battle against Ozawa last fall.. For the first time since Koizumi, Japan seemed to have a leader who wanted to lead..
Then the world, quite literally, fell apart..
Kan’s government was derided by a largely hostile Japanese establishment.. which is largely loyal to the Liberal Democratic Party, which is now in opposition but led the country almost without interruption from 1955 to 2009.. for what's been called a 'tentative response' to the massive earthquake and tsunami that obliterated entire cities in the northeast of the country and unleashed the still-unfolding crisis at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant..
Yet another body blow to the government this morning.. as Moody's downgrades it credit to 'Double 'A'3.. They have effected the downgrade due to large government deficits.. and the inability to come to an agreement on taxation..
However, the rating agency's forecast for Japan's economic outlook was 'stable'..
More oddities concerning this earth of ours..
As we mentioned.. The largest natural earthquake in Colorado in more than a century struck Monday night in the state’s southeast corner, but there were no reports of damage or injuries.. The quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 5.3, was centered about nine miles from the city of Trinidad and hit at 11:46pm local time..
It was felt as far away as Greeley, about 350 miles north, and into Kansas and New Mexico..
Now yesterday.. A strong earthquake rattled the East Coast, sending tremors as far as Canada, damaging well-known buildings in the nation's capital and sending scared office workers into the streets..
There were no reports of major damage or serious injuries from the 5.8 magnitude quake, which was centered in Mineral, Virginia..
It was the largest quake in Virginia since 1897 and struck at a shallow depth, increasing its potency..
Nuclear safety fears grew when one of four emergency diesel generators at the North Anna nuclear power plant in Virginia stopped working due to the quake..
But the plant's safety systems remained powered by three operating generators.. The plant was built to withstand a quake of 6.1 magnitude..
The Pentagon, White House and Capitol were evacuated in Washington.. and thousands of alarmed workers scurried into the streets up and down the East Coast as the lunchtime quake sent items crashing down from store and office shelves..
There were no reports of deaths or serious injuries..
The National Cathedral said its central tower and three of its four corner spires were damaged, but the White House said advisers had told President Obama there were no reports of major damage to the nation's infrastructure.. airports, nuclear facilities.. all major arteries remained open and functioning..
Still earthquakes down the Eastern Seaboard.. under Lake Ontario.. felt in Toronto...
As mentioned.. odd..
Just a point to ponder..
Reports indicate that since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.. the NYPD has become one of the country's most aggressive domestic intelligence agencies..
These reports revealed that the NYPD operates far outside its borders.. and targets ethnic communities in ways that would run afoul of Civil Liberties rules if practiced by the federal government..
And it does so with unprecedented help from the CIA in a partnership that has blurred the bright line between foreign and domestic spying..
Neither the City Council.. which finances the department.. nor the Federal Government.. which contributes hundreds of millions of dollars each year, is told exactly what's going on..
The department has dispatched teams of undercover officers, known as "rakers," into minority neighborhoods as part of a human mapping program.. according to officials directly involved in the program.. They've monitored daily life in bookstores, bars, cafes and nightclubs.. Police have also used informants, known as "mosque crawlers," to monitor sermons, even when there's no evidence of wrongdoing. NYPD officials have scrutinized imams and gathered intelligence on cab drivers and food cart vendors, jobs often done by Muslims..
Many of these operations were built with help from the CIA, which is prohibited from spying on Americans but was instrumental in transforming the NYPD's intelligence unit..
Now if there is any credence to these reports, it hits at the underbelly of the Intelligence Community.. It's the stuff conspiracy buffs live for..
They continue.. A veteran CIA officer, while still on the agency's payroll, was the architect of the NYPD's intelligence programs..
The CIA trained a police detective at the Farm, the agency's 'school' in Virginia, then returned him to New York, where he put his new espionage skills to work inside the United States..
And just last month, the CIA sent a senior officer to work as a clandestine operative inside police headquarters..
While the expansion of the NYPD's intelligence unit has been well known.. many details about its clandestine operations.. including the depth of its CIA ties.. have not previously been reported..
The NYPD denied that it trolls ethnic neighborhoods and said it only follows leads.. In a city that has repeatedly been targeted by terrorists, police make no apologies for pushing the envelope.. NYPD intelligence operations have quietly disrupted terrorist plots and put several would-be killers in prison..
According to a spokesman for the NYPD.. "The New York Police Department is doing everything it can to make sure there's not another 9/11 here and that more innocent New Yorkers are not killed by terrorists.. and we have nothing to apologize for in that regard."
One of the enduring questions of the past decade is whether being safe requires giving up some liberty and privacy.. The focus of that debate has primarily been Federal programs the likes of wiretapping and indefinite detention..
The question has received less attention in New York, where residents do not know for sure what, if anything, they have given up..
But one would be exceedingly naive to think abrogation of responsibility, costs nothing.. If these clandestine machinations are in New York.. one can reasonably expect then to be in place in Washington.. Boston.. all down the Eastern Seaboard..
And if in the States.. what of the tactics of the authorities here in Britain.. throughout the Eurozone..?
And once again, it begs the question 'at what price freedom..?'
After weeks of uncertainty, traders seemed to seize the day..
Stock indexes powered ahead yesterday as investors saw profit to be made on some cheap stocks.. as they bet that weak economic data would support the possibility of further stimulus from the Federal Reserve.. It was at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last year that Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, signaled further stimulus in light of a similar slowdown of the American economy..
'Quantitative easing' was entered into the economic lexicon..
“The market is down so much in the last week or two,” said Brian M. Youngberg, an energy analyst at Edward Jones.. “When the risk seems to come down a bit, many investors get back in it.”..
The broader market rose more than 3% and represented the second consecutive day of gains in stocks this week.. Mind you, that has merely rearranged the value of stocks.. making up for the losses of last week.. Many analysts say investors are waiting for policy makers to lay out plans for their response to the European sovereign debt issues and the economic headwinds in the United States..
One more day of rising indexes.. we might see a dip towards Thursday as some take their profit and wait for the announcement Friday from Ben..
Early trading along the Pacific Rim reflects the tone of the markets and investors in general.. Some profit taking already in evidence.. The Hang Seng and the Nikkei are very slightly up in early trading.. while Australia and New Zealand opened to slight losses..
That trend mentioned above seems to show signs of being the tone of the day.. A few hours into trading.. Japan.. Hong Kong.. have slipped into the red..
Chalk it up to minor profit taking..
We'll follow through the trading day.. But it's doubtful we'll see anything of note until the end of the week..
And as the day came to an end.. stocks in Europe rose today, defying declines in the U.S. and Asia, as investors awaited potential new action from the Federal Reserve to kick start the world's largest economy..
In a sign of the wild movements seen on financial and commodities markets in recent weeks, the price of gold, which had surged in recent weeks as investors fled into save-haven assets, plummeted 4.4% to $1,779, more than $100 below a new record reached just days ago..
Markets are likely to continue fluctuating ahead of Friday's speech.. Investors hope Bernanke will signal a third round of massive bond-buying to boost the faltering U.S. recovery..
With the goal of significantly lowering the country's debt.. the French government has announced a 3% tax hike for those earning above 500,000 euros.. that's £440,000, or $721,000..
This tax hike follows some of France's wealthiest people calling on the government to tackle its deficit by raising taxes on the rich..
Some might say this seems to be an outcry from the turkeys for an early Christmas.. but in fact, it's a brilliant strategy to quiet some of the resentment and unrest fomenting in France.. This allows high earners to say 'we're doing what we can..'
Paris has also reduced its economic growth forecast for 2012 to 1.75% from a previous 2.25%.. Prime Minister Francois Fillon said the new tax would remain in place until France reduces its budget deficit back under the EU's intended limit of 3% of GDP.. with analysts saying that could come to pass by 2013..
"This is a rigorous policy that will allow France to remain relaxed," Fillon announced.. "Our country must stick to its [deficit] commitments. It's in the interest of all French people."..
Sixteen executives, including Europe's richest woman, the L'Oreal heiress Liliane Bettencourt, had offered in an open letter to pay a "special contribution" in a spirit of "solidarity"..
It appeared on the website of the French magazine Le Nouvel Observateur..
It was signed by some of France's most high-profile chief executives.. including Christophe de Margerie of oil firm Total.. Frederic Oudea of Bank Societe Generale.. and Air France's Jean-Cyril Spinetta..
Big names.. and a gesture some of our banking executives could well take note of..
Especially the banking sector..
After hours of pounding battle yesterday, Libya's rebels smashed through the fortified perimeter of Muammar Gaddafi's compound in western Tripoli.. the nerve center of the old regime.. sending huge plumes of black smoke over the city.. perhaps dealing a fatal blow to Gaddafi's ability to cling to power..
Footage apparently shot by rebels and aired on al-Jazeera showed armed rebels deep inside the Bab al-Aziziyah complex, rejoicing as they clambered upon the ruins of Gaddafi's old house, which was bombed by U.S. jets in 1986 and had been left by Gaddafi as a memorial to the West's evils..
But the man himself.. and his eldest son.. remain at large..
And this has led to a host of speculation on where they might be.. Some analysts are sure Mohammar's still in Libya.. others are sure he's taken what he has, and left for friendlier surroundings..
The fight for Tripoli appears to be virtually over.. but so far, there's no indication of where the Gaddafi's might be.. and until he's found.. the Revolutionary Council will not consider their achievements as a success..
As of this afternoon.. Libyan diplomats and students smashed portraits of Moammar Gadhafi, shouted "Game over!" and raised the rebel flag at their Manila embassy today as part of defections at missions worldwide underscoring the leader's rapid fall..
As rebels stormed the Libyan capital and Gadhafi's power and influence abroad crumbled, Libyan Consul Faraj Zarroug in the Philippine capital said about 85% of his country's 165 diplomatic missions now recognized the interim rebel government, the National Transitional Council.. Libyan diplomats abroad have been pledging allegiance to the rebels gradually after the rebellion erupted nearly six months ago.. but defections surged this week as rebels entered Tripoli in a stunning breakthrough..
While missions to Switzerland and Bangladesh, for example, switched early on, Libyan embassy officials in Japan and Ethiopia replaced the government flag with the rebel's tricolor the beginning of the week.. A spokesman for the rebels in Dubai, Edward Marques, said today.. the defections had turned into a "cascade," but declined to list the locations of rebel supporters.. The Libyan government could no longer be reached for comment..
A look into the internal goings on in Japan..
As Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan spends his final days in office before his party holds an internal vote Monday to choose his successor.. it's easy to be glib.. The man was in office only 14 months after all, and whoever replaces him will become the country’s seventh Prime Minister in five years..
Yup.. the 7th in 5..
But Kan’s departure deserves longer reflection than the resignation of his predecessor, the oddball Yukio Hatoyama, or any of the other four men who have held the office since Japan’s last memorable leader, Junichiro Koizumi, who stepped aside in September of 2006..
As the revolving door at the top illustrates.. the problem goes far beyond Kan and speaks to a crippling illness in Japanese politics.. a disease that compounds the already enormous threats to the country’s future..
Kan recognized the harm being done by the vacuum at the top and seemed more determined than any of his recent predecessors to hang on to the office, if only to change the perception that it no longer matters who the Prime Minister of Japan is..
But Japan’s political system, which allows reviled backroom operators to wield enormous power over their putative leaders, coupled with the natural and nuclear disasters that hit the country on March 11, ensured that he never stood a chance of succeeding..
Kan came to office last summer vowing to tackle the country’s debilitating financial mess.. Japan’s debt soared past $11-trillion earlier this year, more than double the size of the country’s GDP..
But the former finance minister’s bold proposal of increasing revenues by doubling the national sales tax to 10 per cent was defeated.. largely due to fierce opposition from within his own Democratic Party of Japan that was led by Ichiro Ozawa.. the party’s 'dark prince' of behind-the-scenes politics..
Realizing that he was doomed to be just another short-term leader unless he unified the DPJ behind him, Mr. Kan courted and won a head-to-head battle against Ozawa last fall.. For the first time since Koizumi, Japan seemed to have a leader who wanted to lead..
Then the world, quite literally, fell apart..
Kan’s government was derided by a largely hostile Japanese establishment.. which is largely loyal to the Liberal Democratic Party, which is now in opposition but led the country almost without interruption from 1955 to 2009.. for what's been called a 'tentative response' to the massive earthquake and tsunami that obliterated entire cities in the northeast of the country and unleashed the still-unfolding crisis at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant..
Yet another body blow to the government this morning.. as Moody's downgrades it credit to 'Double 'A'3.. They have effected the downgrade due to large government deficits.. and the inability to come to an agreement on taxation..
However, the rating agency's forecast for Japan's economic outlook was 'stable'..
More oddities concerning this earth of ours..
As we mentioned.. The largest natural earthquake in Colorado in more than a century struck Monday night in the state’s southeast corner, but there were no reports of damage or injuries.. The quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 5.3, was centered about nine miles from the city of Trinidad and hit at 11:46pm local time..
It was felt as far away as Greeley, about 350 miles north, and into Kansas and New Mexico..
Now yesterday.. A strong earthquake rattled the East Coast, sending tremors as far as Canada, damaging well-known buildings in the nation's capital and sending scared office workers into the streets..
There were no reports of major damage or serious injuries from the 5.8 magnitude quake, which was centered in Mineral, Virginia..
It was the largest quake in Virginia since 1897 and struck at a shallow depth, increasing its potency..
Nuclear safety fears grew when one of four emergency diesel generators at the North Anna nuclear power plant in Virginia stopped working due to the quake..
But the plant's safety systems remained powered by three operating generators.. The plant was built to withstand a quake of 6.1 magnitude..
The Pentagon, White House and Capitol were evacuated in Washington.. and thousands of alarmed workers scurried into the streets up and down the East Coast as the lunchtime quake sent items crashing down from store and office shelves..
There were no reports of deaths or serious injuries..
The National Cathedral said its central tower and three of its four corner spires were damaged, but the White House said advisers had told President Obama there were no reports of major damage to the nation's infrastructure.. airports, nuclear facilities.. all major arteries remained open and functioning..
Still earthquakes down the Eastern Seaboard.. under Lake Ontario.. felt in Toronto...
As mentioned.. odd..
Just a point to ponder..
Reports indicate that since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.. the NYPD has become one of the country's most aggressive domestic intelligence agencies..
These reports revealed that the NYPD operates far outside its borders.. and targets ethnic communities in ways that would run afoul of Civil Liberties rules if practiced by the federal government..
And it does so with unprecedented help from the CIA in a partnership that has blurred the bright line between foreign and domestic spying..
Neither the City Council.. which finances the department.. nor the Federal Government.. which contributes hundreds of millions of dollars each year, is told exactly what's going on..
The department has dispatched teams of undercover officers, known as "rakers," into minority neighborhoods as part of a human mapping program.. according to officials directly involved in the program.. They've monitored daily life in bookstores, bars, cafes and nightclubs.. Police have also used informants, known as "mosque crawlers," to monitor sermons, even when there's no evidence of wrongdoing. NYPD officials have scrutinized imams and gathered intelligence on cab drivers and food cart vendors, jobs often done by Muslims..
Many of these operations were built with help from the CIA, which is prohibited from spying on Americans but was instrumental in transforming the NYPD's intelligence unit..
Now if there is any credence to these reports, it hits at the underbelly of the Intelligence Community.. It's the stuff conspiracy buffs live for..
They continue.. A veteran CIA officer, while still on the agency's payroll, was the architect of the NYPD's intelligence programs..
The CIA trained a police detective at the Farm, the agency's 'school' in Virginia, then returned him to New York, where he put his new espionage skills to work inside the United States..
And just last month, the CIA sent a senior officer to work as a clandestine operative inside police headquarters..
While the expansion of the NYPD's intelligence unit has been well known.. many details about its clandestine operations.. including the depth of its CIA ties.. have not previously been reported..
The NYPD denied that it trolls ethnic neighborhoods and said it only follows leads.. In a city that has repeatedly been targeted by terrorists, police make no apologies for pushing the envelope.. NYPD intelligence operations have quietly disrupted terrorist plots and put several would-be killers in prison..
According to a spokesman for the NYPD.. "The New York Police Department is doing everything it can to make sure there's not another 9/11 here and that more innocent New Yorkers are not killed by terrorists.. and we have nothing to apologize for in that regard."
One of the enduring questions of the past decade is whether being safe requires giving up some liberty and privacy.. The focus of that debate has primarily been Federal programs the likes of wiretapping and indefinite detention..
The question has received less attention in New York, where residents do not know for sure what, if anything, they have given up..
But one would be exceedingly naive to think abrogation of responsibility, costs nothing.. If these clandestine machinations are in New York.. one can reasonably expect then to be in place in Washington.. Boston.. all down the Eastern Seaboard..
And if in the States.. what of the tactics of the authorities here in Britain.. throughout the Eurozone..?
And once again, it begs the question 'at what price freedom..?'
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