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..There's a little Samuel Pepys in all of us..

Thursday, April 05, 2007

A comment sent concerning yesterday's post.. something always welcome..
But the writerindicated that Iran, in this latest brouhaha, has 'come out on top'.. has succeeded in embarrasing Britain, the coalition forces in Iraq, and has underlined to the Arab Community that indeed they can force diplomatic crises within the Western ranks..
One cannot agree with this stance.
Yesterday, President Ahmadenejad 'magnanimously' released those servicemen kidnapped on the Shatt al Arab waterway, and appears now to be basking in his political victory..
But in fact, this move by Iran, was more than likely demanded by those above the President, due to the growing International pressure on Iran, and the diminution of the Iranian stance concerning this issue.
It would have happened eventually anyway. There are matters to be resolved concerning the boundaries separating Iran and Iraq along the Shatt al Arab, but in this particular case, the Royal Navy was doing a job, within waters it has patrolled for years now. It would seem unlikely that, again in this particular case, they would have strayed into an area which was outside their sphere of control.. and it would be even more unlikely that Iranian patrols would be there within seconds, had this not been a pre-planned, orchestrated political move.
And now, on the eve of the Persian New Year, the prisoners have been set free, and sent home, with a plea from President Ahmadenejad to Tony, that these troops not be 'prosecuted' for their trespasses.
What is by far more likely the case, is that Iran realised that it's case was quickly becoming untenable.. that some action would have to be taken to secure the release, or the rescue of these prisoners.. and that Iran simply could not have stopped any move by Britain or the US to effect this action.
These are the actions of a small child, who, when having stolen something which belonged to someone else and has held on as long as possible, claiming justification, has finally done a complete 180 degree turn and announced 'even though I'm right, I will give it back'..
It is a transparent move to save face, for not only was the pressure mounting from the West, but also from within the ranks of the Arab Community itself..
Iran wants no more deep scrutiny put upon itself than it already has, with it's development of it's uranium stockpiles. This issue in itself was perhaps the reason for the kidnappings in the first place, with the prisoners meant to be used as pawns, to reduce Western intervention in it's nuclear development program..
But, it has backfired..
So, rather than having shamed the British, Iran has shamed itself. For if it's position was completely justified, let there be no mistake, there would have been no capitulation.. no release.. no lessening of diplomatic pressure..
This is not the way politics works in the Middle East..
Never has been..

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