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..There's a little Samuel Pepys in all of us..

Thursday, April 05, 2007

A statement from Tony, just a few moments ago.. has effectively confirmed that which has been written here over these past few days..
Statements from other analysts have echoed the same sentiments..
Let's recap..
Tony stated plainly two days ago, that 'the next 48 hours would be crucial, as far as relations between Britain and Iran were concerned'..
That, according to today's statement, Irans 'drama' had been influenced by diplomatic efforts from Syria, Iran's closest ally in the Middle East, from Afghanistan, from Saudi Arabia, from Turkey, from even Columbia.. all those who had called in their Iranian representatives in those countries, and had effectively told the Iranians that they had committed a 'blunder' in taking British prisoners in a manner which made Iran, and it's government, 'suspect' throughout the International Diplomatic Community..
Now, the point has been made, that President Ahmadenejad is exceedingly popular among the young in Iran.. those who may be somewhat distanced from the real leaders of that country.. the Ayatollah Khameini, and his Islamic regeme. But, this 'theater' he has produced in the release of the hostages on the eve of Easter, would be considered as a master stroke of diplomacy only by the most naive of observers.
It would be well kept in mind that Britain made no concessions to the Iranian regeme, and that the British approach to this situation was on two fronts.. one being diplomatic, which has opened channels of communication hithertofore closed, and the other being the consolidation of international opinion against the trustworthyness of Iran itself..
Iran is now seen, even within the Arab world, as a 'loose cannon'.. a country that would fly in the face of world opinion regardless of the consiquences..
The damage will take some time to repair with those countries Iran had counted on for unconditional support, and in fact, it is moot whether President Ahmadenejad will be capable of effecting such repair work.
If Iran considered itself isolated before, this latest escapade has only increased this situation.
And to further the rift between the West and Iran, Tony has unconditionally accused the government in Tehran of supplying arms, money, and personnel to fuel the unrest in Iraq, and hinder the efforts of the US and Britain to bring stability to a country that could be independantly wealthy.. one which could afford it's citizens with a stability between the two main religious communities.. and provide it's citizens with a decent standard of living.
Ahmadenejad has succeeded in taking the focus off Israel, and the Palistinian issue, and in doing such may well allow those two factions to come to a peaceable agreement..
And this, was certainly not what the man had in mind when he first took the British servicemen captive, thirteen days ago..
He has effectively underlined the fact, that his purpose has been to cause as much disruption as possible in the Middle East, and while this may please the youth in Iran, it has certainly not done the same for those who were his allies, or those who form the actual government, hold the actual power, in his own country..

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