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..There's a little Samuel Pepys in all of us..

Friday, April 06, 2007

President Ahmadenejad appears to have problems, in his own country.
'His' actions, as they are now being called.. 'could have started an International Incident'.. something the Iranian government would avoid at all costs..
'His' bluff, failed.
It has now been firmly established who runs the government in Iran, and while Ahmadenejad has power, it is not the 'absolute' power he counted on... He doesn't have the solid support of the man on the street, as has been proven by statements issued by al Jazeera..interviews with random people in Iran, who 'wondered what has being done to the kidnapped Navy personnel', and 'why' they were taken initially.
The de-briefing of those captives has been enlightening.. of them being stripped and dressed in pyjamas.. of being kept in stone cells.. sleeping on blankets.. only seeing each other when they were paraded on State television.. of being lined up, blindfolded, with armed guards behind them cocking their weapons.. of being threatened with seven years in jail if they did not make the statements prepared for them by their Iranian captors..
Ahh yes.
And those who believed that there was the possibility that the Royal Navy could have made a mistake, and wandered into Iranian waters.. The captives themselves confirming exactly what the GPS and photographic evidence had already done.. that when that freighter was boarded, the Royal Navy was 1.7 miles within Iraqi waters..
And the statement from the captives, that they were confronted with an 'unwinnable' situation, had they decided to fight their way out.. of being outnumbered, with some of the Iranians in the 'black bag' operation appeared to be volotile, unstable, and willing to shoot at the drop of a hat..
It makes the little gift bags the captives were issued when they were set free, somewhat.. what's the word..
While the government in Tehran is now working on damage control.. while those who actually held the reins allowed Ahmadenejad run with his calculated risk evaluate the damage they've allowed..
The President's job itself appears to be on the line..
The Iranian position, wherein they have been supplying arms, money, and personnel to the insurgents in Iraq, is being seriously scrutinised and evaluated..
The Iranian position within it's own Arab Community, is being shored up by disassociation by the Ayatollah Kameini from the entire incident..
As was written in this commentary, just a few days ago.. This was a mistake, and a bad one.
The end effect may well be, an increase in attacks on coalition forces by the Iraqi insurgents, as they try and demonstrate their capabilities..
But soon, it will mean a decrease in such attacks, as these insurgents see their lines of supply drying up.. their financing disappearing.. Iran has demonstrated to the rest of the Arab Community, that the coalition will not be cowed by the possible loss of men, and women, in this conflict.
Four British soldiers were killed by a roadside mortar and following gunfire two days ago..
Two of them were women..
This sends a far more powerfull message to those opposing the reconstruction of Iraq.. the re-establishment of a government which would deal with healing the rift between Sunni and Shi'ite..the rebuilding of oil-pipelines and refineries so Iraq can once again provide it's peoples with an income.. than ever an invasion of Iran ever could..
A scenario Ahmadenejah had counted on..
This, demonstrates to the Arab Community, that having a fanatic in control, is not a wise move..
Now, while most of the countries who follow Islam are tollerant to those who do not adhere to the same creed, there has always been a tacit agreement that the fanatics among them will be left alone.. not publicly 'supported', but allowed to carry out their subversive measures against that which the West has been trying to build in Iraq, and diplomatically work towards in Israel with the Palistinians.
This, will give the Palistinian Hezbollah Government something to think about..
Perhaps they'll look at Northern Ireland, wherein even those as diamentrically opposed politically, the likes of Jerry Adams and Ian Paisley, can eventually find themselves reaching an agreement..
Ahmadenejad, through his actions, may well have done some good in the long run..
Not quite that which he had planned two weeks ago..

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