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..There's a little Samuel Pepys in all of us..

Friday, February 11, 2011

It's getting hot in Egypt..
Mohammad el Baradei announced the 'country will erupt' following the last statement from Hosni.. and called for the Army to intervene.. meanwhile Vice-President Suleiman is pressing for 'an orderly transition', but the odds on that seem to be slipping... the White House is showing perhaps a tad too much in the way of 'forceful diplomacy'.. for it could , if escallated, be seen as a 'gunboat diplomatic' move..
This whole Middle Eastern brouhaha could have an enormous effect on our way of life, this popular revolt in a country that for 30 years has been a close associate of the West.. and while charging swingeing prices for their only commodity, we've been an eager customer.. Theirs is control of the Suez Canal.. the major shipping route for so many exporters that it would take some time to count..
As mentioned, both Israel and the US are watching this change closely, and with good reason.
Egypt is known for it's religious tolerance.. Copts, Roman Christians, Muslims, Jews, work, live, and accept each other, for the most part.. There are some places radicalization has opened rifts, but stability is the norm.. With the inclusion and concurrent recognition of the Muslim Brotherhood into the political forum, there is yet another volatile faction in that country..
There are some analysts who have announced their take on the subject to suggest either another dictator, or an army strongman can assume the reins and restore order, with the promise that elections will be held in September as planned..
But there is also a considerable pro-democracy group.. The youth of the country appear to appreciate a possession driven culture, which means if there is a move by the military, then they themselves will face mass demonstrations at some point. Once in place, it's so very difficult to remove an army..
This could be very interesting..

As the night has progressed, it's become clear that Hosni may well have an agenda, a 'to do list', before he relinquishes the title..
One issue he's carved in stone, is the peace treaty with Israel..
And another may simply be hubris.. not wanting to be seen as running from a mob..
There were Pharaohs who ruled shorter terms in office... and in fact he's a shell of a power, having handed over most of his executive powers to his Vice President, but the weight of the title 'President' is something Hosni, for whatever reason, is clinging to.. It might be as simple as removing evidence.. or as complex as Middle Eastern Security.. or a serious concern for a return to normalcy while preparations for a September election could be set into motion.. a concern that any knee-jerk reaction from his people could lead them into chaos, with no government in control any longer..
Interesting as well that Mohammad ElBaradai is wafting the flames, and calling on the Military to effectively stage a coup..

Also interesting is the lack of reports within Israel itself on Egypt's revolt.. News is thin on the ground.. not much media attention..
Of course there's the Net, and countless live feeds.. But the State itself has not made plain to the population just how important this 'revolution' in Egypt, is to them. While it is almost a given that the relationship between the two countries will continue as they have since Sadat was assassinated, there is always the fear, that something completely difficult might arise..

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